Shiite Militias Move Into Oil-Rich Kirkuk, Even as Kurds Dig In

[ECH1969]

Hundreds of Shiite Muslim militiamen have deployed in recent weeks to this restive city -- widely considered the most likely flash point for an Iraqi civil war -- vowing to fight any attempt to shift control over Kirkuk to the Kurdish-governed north, according to U.S. commanders and diplomats, local police and politicians.

The Mahdi Army, led by firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, has sent at least two companies, each with about 120 fighters, according to Thomas Wise, political counselor for the U.S. Embassy's Kirkuk regional office, which has been tracking militia activity.

In a meeting here last week, Sadr's representative in the city, Abdul Karim Khalifa, told U.S. officials that more armed loyalists were on the way and that as many as 7,000 to 10,000 Shiite residents were prepared to fight alongside the Mahdi Army if called upon. Legions more Shiite militiamen would push north from Baghdad's Sadr City slum, he said, according to Wise.

"His message was essentially that any idea of Kirkuk going to the Kurds will mean a fight," Wise said. "He said that their policy here was different from in other places, that they are not going to attack coalition forces because their only enemy here is the Kurds."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/24/AR2006042401560.html

[brokensymmetry]

1. Golly, Unca Dick! This sounds like...

civil war! Imagine that!

[IndianaGreen]

2. As I said before, Shias will never allow the Kurds to secede

There is never going to be an independent Kurdistan

Shia, Suni, and Turkmen in Iraq will never allow it to happen, even if they have to use force. Turkey won't allow it. Iran won't allow it. Syria won't allow it. The US will not allow it either, and neither will Russia and China who have separatist problems of their own.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2242950&mesg_id=2242975

[Kagemusha]

3. That's not enough Shiites to do a damned thing to stop it though

Not like the Iraqi Army would intervene. (Ha! Ha!)

[ECH1969]

5. Sadr has four million followers in Sadr City

It could get horrifically bloodly if he wanted it to.

[papau]

17. All of Sadr City's two million mainly Shi'a Muslims.ready to go to war?

I kind of doubt that.

The 7,000 he is saying he might move to Kirkuk is also half of his total force under command.

Not that your "horrifically bloodly" is wrong - I agree it would be.

But Sadr's power is quite a bit less than 4 million.

[rocktivity]

4. As long as it's not a civil war yet.

:eyes:
rocknation

[alfredo]

6. Oh shit.

I've been fearing this. I hope nothing comes of this.

I want to see bush fail, but not at the cost of more death and destruction.

Not only should we impeach bush and remove his whole administration, those responsible for the war should be put on trial for war crimes.

[acmavm]

7. Geez, sounds like the boys aren't playing very nice over there. Think

that maybe there will be some rough stuff over who gets those Kirkuk oil fields?

[54anickel]

8. Interesting choice of word - restive. It fits, but seems such an odd term

to use in a newspaper article. :shrug:

Certainly looks like our troops are going to get caught up in the middle. Will they be forced to choose sides? This part here looks like a shrewd move on Sadr's part - basically calling a cease fire on coalition forces...assuming coalition forces don't shoot first.

In a meeting here last week, Sadr's representative in the city, Abdul Karim Khalifa, told U.S. officials that more armed loyalists were on the way and that as many as 7,000 to 10,000 Shiite residents were prepared to fight alongside the Mahdi Army if called upon. Legions more Shiite militiamen would push north from Baghdad's Sadr City slum, he said, according to Wise.

"His message was essentially that any idea of Kirkuk going to the Kurds will mean a fight," Wise said. "He said that their policy here was different from in other places, that they are not going to attack coalition forces because their only enemy here is the Kurds."

[adriennui]

9. why shouldn't the kurds secede

iraq is a basket case of religious insanity. the kurds are less sectarian than the shiaas and sunnis.
i can't say i blame the kurds, lots of bad memories from when saddam was in power.it seems as if the world is against it....i say, let them be.

[ECH1969]

10. Because they would be butchered

The Sunnis and Shia would send thousands and thousands of men to fight them. More importantly Turkey and Iran would be more then happy to gobble up good chunks of Northern Iraq and mark my words they would do it.

[adriennui]

15. they seen the most rational

why does might always win (um, sometimes). it's too bad, the kurds would probably be able to make a good start at a democratic government. maybe someone (not the west) should fund the rebels (india, russia, or china?).

[Kagemusha]

20. Wow, you don't know much about the place at all...

Not knocking you. But you seriously need to read up on all the different factions and on how they only barely commuted a 30 year hard prison time sentence for a reporter whose crime was writing things that the "president of Kurdistan" didn't like. And the Israelis have a lot of friends there. The US would be horrified if India, Russia or China supported the Kurds. It'd align the Kurds against the US, which would be a disaster for US interests there.

Bottom line is, all anyone has to do is decide Iraq doesn't really exist, it's just a figment of our imagination. After that, Kurdistan's existence is a natural step. No-longer-Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites can fight over what the Kurds can't be bothered to take. Yeah, that's better. Real positive development there.

[adriennui]

25. i wasn't writing from a "realpolitik" POV

if all 3 factions stand together they all go down. a kurdistan would have the best chance of acheiving some sort of free(ish) society.

[Roland99]

11. Remember the Kurdish militia is just waiting for orders to split off and

go off.

[killerbush]

12. Kirkuk is Kurdish. Tell Al Sadr to stick it up his ass

Kirkuk and Erbil are in the Kurdish dominated zone. Those cities are Kurdish. Al Sadr and his Mahdi army can go to hell. The Peshmerga will protect Kirkuk from anyone trying to take it.

[Kagemusha]

18. Thank you for illustrating what a powder keg this all is.

But while your first phrase is true, your third phrase is pure opinion, and your second is a stretch. That city (Kirkuk) is not Kurdish. YET. The Peshmerga will have to protect it from anyone ELSE trying to take it, while taking it for themselves.

Hence why it's a powder keg.

[Odin2005]

13. Sadr and his thugs can go to hell.

Thats Kurdish land, the Arabs have no right to it.

[Oversea Visitor]

14. The Kurds sadly will be sold down the river.

They will dream of how good life was compare to now.

Sold down the river
Sold down the river.

Prove me wrong bush

You selling them down the river

[SoCalDem]

16. And so it starts..

The Kurds actually thought they could continue to maintain their little domain. The No-fly zone gave them peace and quiet, and autonomy. Those days are OVER.. The shi'ites are the majority, and they will run roughshod over the Kurds. :(

[Kagemusha]

19. The Kurds are much too tough to be run over quickly.

But hey, the longer a conflict goes on, the less good their position looks.

Hence why I keep saying it's a powder keg. Regardless of if one's personal sympathies lie with the Kurds or not.

[Canuckistanian]

21. I believe that too

The Kurds have been repressed for a long time.

Now, they have relative autonomy, newfound wealth, political power in the Iraqi government and, most importantly, a new national pride.

Any enemy that tries to take them on is going to get a vicious fight.

The problem is, Turkey would try to insinuate itself right into the middle.

[catmandu57]

22. It's a great big rock rolling downhill

one that we kicked the lockstone out from underneath. We have set events into motion with this excursion into madness that we're not going to be able to stop.
I said in 02 that chucklenutz* was whacking a Hornet's nest, now the swarm is out, and I haven't any confidence in anyone's ability to stop things before they decend further into insanity.

[oblivious]

23. Here's an ethnoreligious map of Iraq for some perspective.

[Disturbed]

24. Armed conflict over territory will split Iraq into three sections.

“The Kurds, the majority of which are Sunni, make up 20% of the Iraq population and are also persecuted.”

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/extra/teachers/lessonplans/iraq/ethnic.html