Those who believe that Teheran Oil Bourse would be the casus belli, the hair trigger that will push Washington into a war with Iran are simply wrong. The claim that by openly trading oil to other nations or buyers in Euro, Iran would set into motion a chain of events in which oil will no longer be traded in US dollars but in Euros which would lead to a panic selling of dollars on world foreign exchange markets and a collapse of the role of the dollar as reserve currency is fantasy.
Reality is a little different.
...Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.
"In the middle of 2006, we are able to start the bourse," Mohammad Asemipur, special adviser on the project to Iran's Oil Minister, said when reached in Tehran. The plan is to trade petrochemical products first, with a crude oil contract coming last, a rollout that likely will take three years, he said.
"Oh, crikey, it's at a much earlier stage than people would think," said British consultant Chris Cook, who claims credit for coming up with the idea for the exchange in the first place and is a member of the consortium headed by the Tehran Stock Exchange that is charged with bringing the project to life.
"You can rest assured, there will not be a crude oil contract, Gulf-based, in my opinion, within a year -- and that would be really pushing it," Mr. Cook, a former director of ICE's predecessor, the International Petroleum Exchange, said when reached in Scotland.
SNIP
http://www.iranian.ws/iran_news/publish/article_14125.shtmlChris Cook is a former director of the International Petroleum Exchange in London and chief advisor the Iranian government on the Iranian Bourse.
If fact, Cook was the one who suggested the bourse to the Iranians. As well as the Norwegians who are talking about opening an euro oil bourse in Oslo after extensive meetings with Cook.
"...It is therefore with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of this "Iran Bourse" project is a wish to subvert the dollar by denominating oil pricing in Euro's."
"As anyone familiar with OPEC will know, the denomination of oil sales in currencies other than the dollar is not a new subject, and as anyone familiar with Economics will tell you the denomination of oil sales is merely a transactional issue: what matters is in what assets (or, in the case of the US, liabilities ) these proceeds are then invested." wrote Chris Cook.
More from the European Tribune Blog where Chris Cook made an appearance.
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2006/2/24/7575/84230 ...I wrote to the then Governor of the Iranian Central Bank Dr Nourbakhsh.
In this letter I pointed out that the structure of global oil markets massively favours intermediary traders and particularly investment banks and that both consumers and producers such as Iran are adversely affected by this.
I recommended that Iran consider as a matter of urgency the creation of a Middle Eastern Energy exchange, and particularly a new Gulf benchmark oil price.
It is therefore with wry amusement that I have seen a myth being widely propagated on the Internet that the genesis of this "Iran Bourse" project is a wish to subvert the dollar by denominating oil pricing in Euro's.
As anyone familiar with OPEC will know, the denomination of oil sales in currencies other than the dollar is not a new subject, and as anyone familiar with Economics will tell you the denomination of oil sales is merely a transactional issue: what matters is in what assets (or, in the case of the US, liabilities ) these proceeds are then invested.
After a couple of years of apparent inaction my colleague and I were invited to put together a consortium to tender for a project to create such an exchange and after a presentation at the Central Bank in Tehran in May 2004, we were successful, as reported in the Guardian at the time. We subsequently learned that the delay had been due to initial opposition from the Saudi's and this opposition was withdrawn post 9/11 and Iraq.
President Ahmadi-Nejad is on record as saying that he favours transparency in the Iranian oil market. As anyone familiar with the City and Wall Street will know, transparency is the enemy of private profit, and it is this factor which was behind the delays in developing the Bourse project.
However, we remain hopeful that the strategy we recommended, which is based upon:
(a) gradual and organic introduction of pricing built upon the neutral function of transaction registration; and
(b) a simple (and Islamically sound) partnership-based "Clearing Union" synthesis of bilateral trading and a multilateral guarantee;
will in due course be taken forward.
One of the most interesting aspects of the process was that during our brief spell of contacts with decision-makers, some insight into current Iranian policy was possible -
in particular, the nuclear question. In our conversations we were left in no doubt that it
suits both the US and Iran for the issue to be seen to be that of the Iranian "threat" from nuclear weapons.
In fact the issue is a proxy for Iraq: try looking in the media prior to the events in Fallujah, Iraq, for anything more than desultory mention of this "issue".
But once factions in Iran funded Muqtada al-Sadr to the tune of $50 million and the US body count started to rise, then the issue began to attain its current level of importance.
Now that pro-Iranian Shi'ite elements are taking a primary role in the emerging government in Iraq,
we see the nuclear temperature rising further.The realpolitik is of course that those in power in the US and Iran have the reason they give - and the real reason - for what they do: and for the US, the real reason is and has been for many years energy security above any other consideration. http://www.opencapital.net/articles.htmThere appear to be a few misconceptions re the Iran Oil Bourse.
Firstly, the reason for its genesis was nothing to do with what currency oil is traded in and everything to do with the fact that producers and consumers were and are suffering at the hands of intermediary oil traders, particularly investment banks, and now hedge funds.
Although absolute levels of oil prices are based upon supply and demand, the level of volatility has been way too high due to systemic market manipulation resulting in massive hedging losses.
It's a phenomenon J K Galbraith called "the Bezzle" - where the losers do not know they are losing.... It means that the derivative tail has been wagging the oil market dog, and in fact oil markets are - courtesy of hedge funds - an accident waiting to happen, probably next Winter. Why? Because unlike the LTCM hedge fund debacle in financial markets, the Fed can't print oil to bail people out......
What reason do I have for saying this? Simply that the Iranian authorities accepted my arguments - as a former Director of the International Petroleum Exchange - some 4 years ago, and subsequently appointed my consortium to carry out a Feasibility study.
www.opencapital.net/papers/Iranexchange.pdf
In fact, it really does not matter what currency oil is sold in: that's merely a transactional issue.
What matters is what assets (or rather, liabilities) the proceeds are invested in. Where Mr Clark has a point.
Regards
Chris Cook
http://peakoil.com/post235825.html#235825