Socialist Bachelet leads in Chile elections

[arcos]

Socialist Bachelet leads in Chile elections

SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Socialist Michelle Bachelet, expected to become Chile's first woman president, was leading with 44.76 percent of the vote in elections on Sunday, based on a count of 12.7 percent of the votes.

The tally by the government Electoral Service showed rightist candidate Sebastian Pinera was in second place with 26.70 percent of the vote, followed by Joaquin Lavin, also from the right, with 23.52 percent.

Tomas Hirsch, from the far-left, had 4.96 percent of the vote.

Bachelet, of the center-left coalition that has governed Chile since the 1990 fall of Augusto Pinochet's military dictatorship, is not expected to win more than 50 percent of the valid votes cast.

That means she will likely face her closest contender in a run-off election on Jan. 15.

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http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-11T222605Z_01_N11137682_RTRIDST_0_CHILE-ELECTION-UPDATE-5.XML

[NoodleBoy]

1. finally, Salvador Allende can rest in peace.

[phusion]

8. No doubt. n/t

[tx_dem41]

2. Yikes...lower than the last pre-election polling.

Seems probably headed for a runoff against a rightist candidate where rightist candidates are currently polling JUST over 50%. Hold on tight.

[deutsey]

3. Oh, shit...if she wins does that mean we have to support another coup?

:evilfrown:

[arcos]

4. hehehe... well, she's pretty much a moderate like current President Lagos

She's a "socialist in name only"... although pretty far to the left by US standards, she's way to the right by Hugo Chavez standards :P

[Lisa]

6. even being a "SINO" was enough to get you tortured or disappeared ...

... back in the bad old days. My friends who escaped from Central American and the Middle East have told me that registering people to vote, going to a peace march, or even the rumor that you were reading political science books was enough to get you a visit from the authorities, under a regime like the Shah's or Pinochet's. A girl I know in South Africa during the apartheid era said that one of her profs (who wasn't any further left on the spectrum than Bill Clinton) had been murdered.

[arcos]

14. Yes, that's a fact...

But nowadays a Bachelet government does not "scare" away "investors" or "US interests"... she's not radical enough for the US to support a coup against her for example, like they did to Salvador Allende.

[Lisa]

15. I am also hoping that certain US policymakers have learned about ...

.... "blowback" (and other, less-dramatic, repercussions of "regime change") over the past few decades -- after seeing the longer-term effects of toppling Mossadegh, Allende, and others. Probably they haven't (the PNAC posse seem to be glossing it over, or even trying to use it to their advantage).

But as someone living in a country which has come into conflict with the US in the past (and future disputes over resources etc. are unlikely but not impossible) -- I am always mindful of these kinds of things.

[arcos]

17. Sadly, they haven't...

And the way the US administration supported the coup against Chávez was pretty good indicator.

It is getting tougher for them, though, because even staunch US allies didn't support these policies then, and they won't support them in the future.

[Ignacio Upton]

19. Yes, and she even supports keeping their private pension system

Which is fairly flawed and has been used by Bush as a "model" for privatizing Social Security. Bachelet and Lagos are technically Socialists, but they are not economic radicals in the sense that they will pursue programs like Allende's, or even Chavez's. However, the current Socialist leaders are doing a good job with Chile's economy, even though some die-hard Socialists may charge that they are "SINOs."

[Judi Lynn]

5. She lost her dad to the monsters Richard Nixon supported,

as well as the man she was going with, and ended up with her mother in prison. I'll bet she will be so determined, after thinking about this her whole life. That doesn't mean _Bush can't bribe and otherwise bend the right Chilean idiots to do the same thing again, does it?

The Republican right-wing simply sees Latin America and the Caribbean as their own property, momentarily inhabited by mostly brown and black people the Republicans don't respect, and they WILL try to destroy everyone there who sees things otherwise.

[Ignacio Upton]

20. Irony in that: She's white

Hispanics have several colors due to interracial marriage over hundreds of years. However, Chile and Argentina have a lot of people who are a purely European ancestry.

[Tarc]

24. No Operation Condor this time around to bail the rightys out

I am glad to see South America finally coming around again after years of meddling and oppression by US administrations.

[Voltaire99]

7. Leftism is alive to the south...

...what the hell is wrong with North America?

[nickgutierrez]

9. In a word: decadence.

Or at least, the appearance of.

[daleo]

10. 60% of Canadians vote Liberal or social democrat (NDP)

Another 5% or so vote Green.

[Name removed]

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[SharonAnn]

12. She got 45.87%. Darn, so close but a Run-off will be required.

El Mercurio link (Santiago, Chile's major newspaper - Spanish language)

http://www.emol.com/noticias/nacional/detalle/detallenoticias.asp?idnoticia=204573

Cuarto cómputo: Bachelet 45,87 %, Piñera 25,48%, Lavín 23,25%,Hirsch 5,37%

[SharonAnn]

13. Here's my husband with Michele last Tuesday (or Wednesday)

This was taken just about an hour before the accident of the busload of her campaign workers where 5 people were killed and others seriously injured.

She was interrupted at the event and flown out because of an "emergency". People didn't know at first that she had been flown to the accident area not far from where the event was being held.

[Judi Lynn]

16. Amazing! There must be quite a story behind this photo.

It's really good she wasn't with the group which had that unexpected goddawful tragedy. She's been through enough rough stuff in her life already.

She looks very kind, as does your husband.

Had no idea any DU'ers had connections with Santiago. Very interesting.

[SharonAnn]

18. No big story. He was lunching at the restaurant with his nephews

and she was holding a campaign event there.

The nephews asked for picture with their "gringo" uncle and she obliged.

Actually, he's a native of Chile. We go visit his family there every couple of years and I had just left after two weeks of visiting and he stayed for another two weeks. His family has a variety of political leanings, from Pinochet supporters to socialists. There's even an Opus Dei numerary in the family, just to make things interesting. It's been quite an education for me, as you can imagine. Anyway, a couple of the Pinochet supporters have changed their views with the revelations of torture, murder and massive theft.

His dad was with NCR (National Cash Register) and was transferred all over Latin America. So he grew up in Chile, Mexico, and Cuba. He lived in Cuba with his family until they left in 1958. His dad was the last NCR Managing Director in Cuba. So he has some interesting insights into what it's was really like in those countries for a middle-class family.

He used to think he was a Republican, though not terribly political. He had lived under military type governments much of his life and learned to keep a low profile, stick to business, and stay out of politics.

Anyway, he's now a fervent Democrat. I actually converted him years ago with Molly Ivins' columns. I have always cut out things that I think he'd be interested in and I started cutting out her columns. They're easy to read, great writing, very informative and often witty. It really helped him see what the Republicans were doing.

[Judi Lynn]

21. Very interesting background! And you've been there, too.

It's going to be wonderful seeing Chile moving in a progressive direction for a change, after being controlled by Pinochet for so long, if only Bachelet can win.

Your husband has had an admirable range of experiences in countries, cultural groups, politics. It's great news hearing he's a Democrat! (Ivins is a great idea. It would be so hard to dislike her! She's good advertising for Texas to out-of-staters, too.)

Thanks for your comments.

[0rganism]

22. Runoff will be interesting... Bachelet looks like she has it locked

Suppose we combine the current percentages around the L/R split proposed in the article:
Pinera -> 26.7% + 23.5% = 50.2%
Bachelet -> 44.8% + 5% = 49.8%
It'd be Pinera by 0.4%
From this, you'd think the rightwing would have an advantage, since their raw total is slightly more than the leftwing's.

But let's say they both keep their core support and get less than 100% of the "fringies":
Pinera -> 26.7% + (0.75)*23.5% = 44.3%
Bachelet -> 44.8% + (0.75)*5% = 48.5%
Bachelet by 4.2%

I like Bachelet's chances here. Pinera has to attract about 78% of the rightwing fringe just to equal Bachelet's current numbers. In the process, he risks alienating any of his more moderate supporters. Bachelet doesn't have to wiggle at all. She'll attract the hard left who oppose Pinera anyway, and some of the moderates will fall off his wagon as he drifts toward the extreme in the general.

[Kralizec]

23. Apparently she is going to pull off more than 50% of the vote.

So no runoff should be necessary. Good work!

[Name removed]

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