GDP aside, jobless rate is number that matters

[chiburb]

While Bushco claims credit for the GDP growth, this article made the FRONT PAGE of the print edition of today's Chicago Tribune:

Snip:

WASHINGTON -- The economy's surprising growth spurt brought smiles to the faces of Republicans throughout the capital, but their joy could be short-lived if it is not followed by an employment increase that makes Americans feel secure in their jobs as the election approaches.

Although Republicans are likely to say that Bush's tax cuts helped the economy grow, analysts said other factors, such as lower interest rates and higher production efficiency, were major contributors.

In order for Bush to eliminate the economy as an issue that could be used against him in 2004, employment will have to pick up sharply, and the jobless rate, now at 6.1 percent, will have to decline. But creating jobs is not as simple and as automatic as it once was in America, and that is a major challenge for the president.

(The article overall is "fair and balanced", but there is much negativity quoted. Also, good news for those that only scan the headlines.)

Read more here:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/printedition/chi-0310310191oct31,1,1531550,print.story?coll=chi-printnews-hed

[JaneQPublic]

1. Most people understand "unemployment rate" but few do "GDP"

The GDP could rise by 10 percent, but it wouldn't mean squat if people are still losing sleep worrying that their paychecks will quit coming.

[chenGOD]

3. Here's the part I loved...

"higher production efficiency"

I don't suppose that would have anything to do with companies using slave labour in China/Africa/India now would it?

[Turley]

15. Those wouldn't be included in GDP

GDP doesn't measure production in other countries.

[Spazito]

17. It does measure production of US companies located in other countries

that is why outsourcing is looming larger and larger and job opportunities are shrinking.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

18. HEY waitaminnit

A Ford car is manufactured in a Brazilian factory, and sold to a Brazilian in Brazil.

Does THAT count as USA GDP???

Edit: anyone has links to such "rules"? (maybe by WTO or something?)

[Turley]

21. No it doesn't

but GNP does.

[llmart]

10. Are you better off now than you were in the 90's?

I believe that most people look basically at their own personal financial situations first. My husband and I still have jobs, but mine is part time with no benefits and his paycheck has taken a substantial cut in the past 3 years. I was thinking about how well off we were during the 90's and all the things we were able to do and the money we were making, and it now seems like a dream. Even though our children are now both grown and on their own, where we thought we would have more, we now have less. Welcome to trickle down economics Bush style.

[KayLaw]

20. Same here

My husband and I did so well back then. We never worried about money and were able to give generously to many charities - I even adopted a cow rescued by an animal rights group! Now I shop at garage sales.

The couple across the street work for a company that manufactures molds for car parts. Under Clinton, the company ran 24/7. Last year they cut down to running 4 days a week, and they recently dropped to one shift. They wonder what will happen if the company closes because they're rather young to retire.

[llmart]

22. KayLaw

The ironic part about my situation is that my husband voted Repug in 2000 and he is the one who measures his self worth and success by how much money and things we have; not me. People like him tend to rationalize that it's not due to Bush's failed economic policies or the lack of confidence the majority of people have in his administration, but that it's all "cyclical". He was in seventh heaven during the Clinton years because of how big his paychecks were, but human nature being what it is, he'll never admit it openly. I have always maintained that when John Q. Public has a leader who is progressive, upbeat and positive (like Clinton was) the mood of the country will be likewise. Now we have a bunch of old fogies running things who came into office crying gloom and doom and the public absorbs that attitude through osmosis.

[Oberst Klink]

23. I went from 70K to 40K

with 2 long rounds of unemployment.

During the IT salad days of the 1990's my wife and I used our money to get totally out of debt, including paying off the house.

Even though everyone I worked with (when I was Sr. systems Analyst at Siemens) went out to lunch every day, I packed my lunch from home. To save money, I would eat 3 boiled eggs for breakfast (and still do). ALL of our clothes are from Goodwill.

Besides all the hardcore saving stuff, the best advice I have for people during hard times (or good times) is to spend as much time at home. When you leave the home, you spend money. Even going to Goodwill, when you don't need something, slowing drains your money.

Still, at 40K and hardly any debt, I thought we would be swimming in it. We still have to watch our money big time.

One of my wifes favorite sayings: "The best way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it back in your purse!"

[llmart]

29. I practice voluntary simplicity

We have absolutely no debt and I know this sounds like I have ESP, but as soon as the Supreme Court appointed Bush I decided to move money out of stocks and pay off our house. Good thing I did, too. And your advice about not even going to stores is excellent! I rarely go shopping except for groceries. As a proponent of voluntary simplicity I already know that what I have is enough. However, I do like to travel, take a class now and then, and give to charity and that has been curtailed because I am not optimistic any more about our retirement. Back in the good ole' days of the Clinton administration I truly thought we would have a fairly comfortable retirement.

P.S. I live in Michigan, too.

[newyawker99]

25. Hi llmart!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[llmart]

28. Thanks!

Actually, I've been a "lurker" at DU for quite some time but never registered. I was always too busy reading all the wonderful responses here. Such a great mix of intellect and humor! But then Dems usually have both compared to the humorless Repugs.

[toopers]

26. It's interesting

Our family actually is better off now than in the 90s. I was laid off from a job in 1999. It took me about 2 months to find work but I am making more now than I did prior to getting laid off. My spouse also. So, I am not sure what to think about the economy.

[ramapo]

2. Time will tell

The story in my morning paper predicts unemployment "evaporating like the morning dew".

While I'm certainly happy to see economic improvement (my own business has perked up in the last month or so but that might just be year-end spending), a true recovery will make any Democrat toast in '04.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

4. Do they have the resources to stage a convincing "fake recovery"

Like, instructing some key businesses to start hiring like crazy (only to fire everybody in January 2005)?

[meisje]

5. we like the negative here...

who cares of the economy crashes as long as bush loses...
more troops? sure, it will make bush lose! Just as long as bush fails at any cost.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

6. Following your logic to the inevitable end...

...one concludes that any opposition party, anywhere, is intrinsically immoral, bacause it will benefit from bad things that happen in the country.

Gee, seems those commies in Russia and China were right about that one-party thing. And you know what? The Republicans get it too.

[Oberst Klink]

9. Right from the book titled "How to loose elections".

-nt-

[pansypoo53219]

11. do you actually think

the the bushavics are NOT dragging us to third world status??? Of course it is IMPERITIVE that he be defeated.

[Oberst Klink]

7. I live in one of the poorest rural areas in the US

I live in Mecosta County, Michigan. I drive through Lake, Newaygo and Mason counties to work in Scottville, Michigan. The unemployment goes from 20% in the summer months to just under 30% in the winter. During the salad days of the 90’s, it was at a healthy 3.5%.

Even from State Highway 10, you can see the effects of extreme rural poverty including people living in tar paper shacks with ratty tarps on the roof to keep the leaks in check. Permanent yard sales at every 5th home with rained on, sun bleached children clothes and toys, old VCRs and the like.

You need to get off the main strip and drive the back two tracks to see how bad it really is. The recent down and out sometimes live in abandoned cars in the woods and usually don’t last past the first real snowfall. There are old 1960’s vintage travel trailers with Rubbermaid containers placed about to catch water and years worth of trash, half burned, in piles near these dwellings.

A large number of the long term unemployed end up living at their parents or grand parents place. Towards Scottville, where old farms take over from the backwoods of Lake and Newaygo Counties, you will see 7 to 10 cars parked around old farm houses. People have in the past lamented the loss of the extended family in America, where the grandparents, parents, children and their new babies live under one roof. In reality, there is a reason people like living in their own places, but under the current economic situation they have been forced together and it’s not a good thing. Still, count them as the lucky ones who have family to fall back on.

These are your Michigan Democrats who don’t usually vote, but always have had food stamps because even during good times $8 an hour at the largest employer, the state prison, is not enough to pay for the house and car along with food, clothes, etc.

The cars and trucks commonly have expired tags and rarely have insurance.

At $2.99 for a shirt and $3.99 for pants, even Goodwill is now too expensive for these folks. You hear about kids who don’t have coats and boots? I pass them every morning while they wait for their buses. Most are properly clothed, but some don’t have coats. The ones that do commonly have their parents coats on, with the sleeves dangling below their knees or last-years-last-years coat that is now a short sleeve. Again, Goodwill has coats starting at $8.99, but if you don’t have it what are you going to do?

[shrike]

12. I'm from Michigan originally

though not from that area. And I have seen rural poverty up close. There was a time when I was down on my luck and had to rent a place in a very cheap part of the world, and I got to see a lot of the folks you describe. Real eye-opener. Are there any local charities, any organizations at all, that I might give my few bucks to?

[Oberst Klink]

13. Yes. Womens Information Service, Inc (WISE)

http://www.womensinformationservice-wise.org/

Our current baby sitter has employed their services. I had heated discussions with some of these folks who came across as simple male-haters, but my baby sitters story soften me up.

She had a good job (at the prison, of course) and started dating a fellow guard. She had a trailer on 2 acres on a land contract. He moved in and 6 months of beatings and the like, he kicked her out of her house.

She had a break down and couldn't hold down her job. He didn't make a payment for 6 months and the house reverted to the former owners.

He was stalkering her, etc, etc. She ended up in a womens shelter (run by the WISE folks).

She just last week got a job with the state starting at $12.50 an hour with benefits.

She sometimes spouts the anti-male WISE propaganda, but I suppose it's a survivor's response of sorts.


WOMEN’S INFORMATION SERVICE, INC.
A Domestic Violence and Adult Sexual Assault Services Program

Serving Mecosta, Newaygo, and Osceola Counties

Business Line 231-796-6692

There are also numerous Christain organizations that help out.

[Frodo]

16. Where are you getting your stats?

This is why DUers don't run debate strategy sessions. We exagerate too much.


Mecosta county is listed as having had an unemployment rate of 4.1% for 2000 and now had a 5.4% rate. It was at or above that rate for Clinton's entire first term.

Lake went from 7.0% to 9.4% (a pretty big jump) but was in the double digits for most of the 90's.


Newyago went from 6.2% to 8.9%. Again a big jump, but still lower than most of the 90's.

Mason county shows the REAL change with a jump from 5.5% to 12.3%, but even THAT does not look the way you portray it.

My point is NOT that things are going swimingly up there. It is only that if you got on stage and tried to tell Bush he had taken the counties involved from 3.5% unemployment to 20-30% in just three years? The facts would laugh you off the stage... when the TRUTH would have looked bad enough.

[Oberst Klink]

19. Here are the stats

Sorry about not checking my facts. If you look Township by Township, the stats tell a different story than the totals by county.

http://www.michlmi.org/LMI/lmadata/laus/lausdocs/105lf03.htm

Branch Township had 29.5% last winter (that's were it's really bad). It's at 24% now. The news reports stuff, it sticks in your head, etc.

Anyhow, sorry about the confusion.

Mecosta county, by the way, has kept is unemployment in check because people are leaving in droves.

[robcon]

8. Politically, the important thing is not the unemployment rate...

but whether employed people are worried about losing their own jobs in the future. The GDP results suggest that the risk of increasing layoffs is lowered.

Unfortunately, Bush* will gain from this.

[lindashaw]

14. Lester Thurow says that job growth has to be more than the amount

of GDP to start gaining. That means we would have to grow jobs at more than 7.2 percent to even begin recovering.

on edit: corrected percentage

[aeon flux]

24. Read the fine print

"...But many economists, including some at the Fed, caution that major parts of the current growth spurt are unsustainable.

...Laurence H. Meyer, an economist and a former Fed governor, estimates that the combination of tax cuts and bigger government spending, mostly for the military, essentially doubled the pace of economic growth in the third quarter, to 6 percent from 3 percent. But Mr. Meyer said that that effect is already wearing off and that the fiscal policy will actually become a drag on growth by the end of next year."

link

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

27. So, this growth is more like...

...the swelling from an infection?