Poll puts Santorum, Casey in dead heat

[Freddie Stubbs]

By David M. Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, March 22, 2005

A strong challenge to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election bid is taking shape as a new Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows the incumbent Republican running neck-and-neck with Democratic state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.
The statewide Keystone Poll shows Casey, who has announced he will oppose Santorum, edging the two-term incumbent senator by 44 percent to 43 percent -- a statistical dead heat -- among 459 registered voters, with 13 percent undecided. The survey released Monday has a margin for error of 4.6 percentage points.

"These candidates start out relatively even," said Keystone Poll Director G. Terry Madonna. "This is the marquee Senate race in the country next year, and it's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner."

"Everybody expects it to be hard-fought and very competitive," he said.

more: http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/regional/s_315859.html

[PC12]

1. The DSCC poll had Casey at 51% and Santorum at 39%.

I back Casey and I wish him well. He will work to protect us from the right wing extremists.

I know about his abortion views, but look at everything else. Casey will be able to control the fundie-facists who will be out in full force for Santorum. Casey's anti-abortion/pro-gun stances will neutralize the right wing screwballs who vote on those issues. Casey will win!

[qanda]

3. Any poll by Scaife's rightwing rag

Is not credible.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. The Keystone Poll is conducted by Franklin & Marshall College

and has an excellent reputation in Pennsylvania.

[lancdem]

21. You're right

I live in Lancaster where F&M is (I'm also an alumnus), and Terry Madonna is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the state. He had Kerry winning PA very close to the actual margin. A DSCC poll would have to be considered pro-Democratic to some extent. Either way, Santorum's in trouble.

[spikesmom]

20. I am pro- choice but will vote for Casey anyway

Although I am pro-choice, other issues take precedence over abortion these days and I would vote for Casey or Chuck Pennachio who is also running. I am looking for a candidate who has good,sound, economic plans for Pa. that don't include outsourcing.

[Brooklyn Michael]

26. Bravo, Spikesmom...(from a former PA resident)

While I would always choose a pro-choice candidate over a "pro-life" candidate, it's nice to hear that there are voters out there who aren't all about a single issue. Even if Casey is "pro-life", I'd rather vote for him, or even a box turtle, than Santorum.

[qanda]

2. Keep dreaming Scaife

Santorum is going down.

[chicagojoe]

22. Who's he going down on? n/t

[last_texas_dem]

24. Well

you know how he gets when he thinks about "man on dog"... :puke:

[Demit]

4. 459 people? Ridiculous what they extrapolate from that.

No agenda behind that sampling, is there?

[Freddie Stubbs]

10. So, how many would give a more accurate sample?

:shrug:

[Demit]

11. I don't know. But with a voting population of millions, 459 is a puny

percentage, and I can't take it seriously as representing anything accurately. It looks like a way to get certain viewpoints into print, with the hope that readers won't retain the information that it's based on a small number and will only remember the viewpoints.

[TahitiNut]

13. "margin for error of 4.6 percentage points"

Any sample size produces a result with which one can be statistically confident (95%) within a margin of error. The validity of such polls is not compromised by sample size, since the margin of error and confidence are determinable. Potentially far greater invalidity exists due to weaknesses in sampling methodology. A blanket condemnation of a poll due merely to sample size betrays an absence of introductory training in probability and statistics - such classes can be taken at any community college.

[Demit]

16. I freely own up to my lack of training in probability. I'm skeptical of

this poll anyway. Yes, it probably would be because of the methodology. And that good old standby of "consider the source". Previously published numbers showed a wider disparity in the Casey/Santorum numbers, and I don't know what might've changed in the intervening week or so. These numbers seem to want to imply a neck and neck race, even before the race starts, and that's a good thing for newspapers and media buys and campaign workers, and most of all for Santorum supporters who must have been chagrined at Casey's early strong showing.

[TahitiNut]

17. The poll clearly says ...

... that if it were conducted against the same population an infinite number of times, then 19 out of every 20 times the result would be anywhere between 48.6% to 39.4% and 39.4% to 47.6%. Five percent of the time (1 of 20), the results would be outside those ranges.

[Freddie Stubbs]

15. It is actually just the right size

See for yourself:

http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

BTW, PA has about 8 million registered voters.

[TahitiNut]

18. If you change the population size, you'll see the sample size ...

... doesn't change much (at all) for populations ranging from 5 million to 500 million. Once you have a large population, the sample size varies very little for wide differences in what 'large' means.

[NewJeffCT]

5. good luck, but it's still early

The RW slime machine has yet to get into gear.

[skypilot]

6. De ja vu.

I no longer trust these polls that have two candidates in a statistical tie. We had polls like this all throughout the Kerry/Bush race.

[Ruffhowse]

7. Oh how I would love to see that sanctimonious POS Santorum

get his ass kicked out of the Senate.

[CindyDale]

8. Is this a sign it's being fixed?

Reminds me of the past two presidential elections, Castor/Martinez, etc.

[Last Lemming]

12. My first thought was the same

they are fifty-fifty going into the voter box

and then a miracle occurs

[sonias]

14. Run Casey run

If you have Santorum under 50% he's vulnerable. Please do take him out of Congress. Make sure you hang onto those GOP talking points on the Schiavo case, they supposedly came out of Santorum's office.

Sonia

[spikesmom]

19. Rick Santorum Puppet Theater

Santorum is the evil puppet of President Bush and will follow him verbatim on every issue form abortion, Iraq, and up into Social Security. Rick Santorum doesn't have a brain of his own so he has to repeat everything Fascist George whispers in his ear. Heck, Santorum is a Pa. senator that doesn't even live in Pa....he lives in Va. with wife and 6 kids but claims a 2 bedroom house in Pa. is his residence. So, all 6 kids sleep in 1 bedroom??? Isn't there a law against that-lol???

[lies and propaganda]

23. Santorum should be going down haha.n/t

[The White Tree]

25. All I can say is "Hey, Ho"

Rick Santmonious Morons got to go".

[Wilms]

27. Nice to hear n/t