Science: Climate Change Inevitable

[nolabels]

Science: Climate Change Inevitable

Even if all greenhouse gases had been stabilized in the year 2000, we would still be committed to a warmer Earth and greater sea level rise in the present century, according to a new study by a team of climate modelers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings are published in this week's issue of the journal Science.
The modeling study quantifies the relative rates of sea level rise and global temperature increase that we are already committed to in the 21st century. Even if no more greenhouse gases were added to the atmosphere, globally averaged surface air temperatures would rise about a half degree Celsius (one degree Fahrenheit) and global sea levels would rise another 11 centimeters (4 inches) from thermal expansion alone by 2100.
(snip)
http://www.physorg.com/news3432.html

This related article below really seemed interesting also

Major Climate Change Occurred 5,200 Years Ago: Evidence Suggests That History Could Repeat Itself

December 16, 2004

From the mountains of data drawn by analyzing countless ice cores, and a meticulous review of sometimes obscure historic records, Thompson and his research team at Ohio State University are convinced that the global climate has changed dramatically.

But more importantly, they believe it has happened at least once before, and the results were nearly catastrophic to emerging cultures at the time. He outlined his interpretations and fears today at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

A professor of geological sciences at Ohio State and a researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center, Thompson points to markers in numerous records suggesting that the climate was altered suddenly some 5,200 years ago with severe impacts.
(snip)
http://www.physorg.com/news2409.html

[maxsolomon]

1. it sure wasn't SUV's 5200 years ago.

probably some volcanos.

[Mithras61]

3. Evidence cited in the second article...

suggests that it was fluctuations in the ammount of solar radiation reaching the planet's surface. That doesn't appear to be the source of the problem, but may be included in the effects along the way (additional cloud cover, etc.).

[NMDemDist2]

2. the comments on the first article were worth a read n/t

[nolabels]

4. Somehow they seem miss pointing out "HOW" it happens conclusively

The rise in the temperature raises the volume (space occupied) of the water. Which concludes them to state
These numbers do not take into account fresh water from melting ice sheets and glaciers, which could at least double the sea level rise caused by thermal expansion alone.

I was under the assumption the rise is sea level was only the result of melted ice. It's seems almost paradoxical to me. When surrounding atmosphere (and thus water)gets colder and the sea level (volume lowers). I guess the cooler slower atoms of a cool climate take up less space or something like that. Gee I may be able to get that idiot award yet :crazy:

[LiberallyInclined]

8. actually- water expands as it freezes.

nt

[nolabels]

10. I think we are both wrong and correct

The mean tempeture is probably the key though

Why does water expand when it cools?
asks B.M. Vignesh Babu, of Madras, India.

Water is peculiar. When most substances change from liquid to solid form, they shrink together, become denser, their molecules packed most closely together.

But when water changes from a sloshy liquid to solid ice, it expands, becomes less dense. Which is why ice floats to the top of your Coke, rather than sinking like a stone to the bottom.

At normal atmospheric pressure, molecules usually behave in predictable ways as their temperature changes. Molecules fly apart into a gas when heated, condense into a flowing liquid when cooled, and shrink into a frozen solid when chilled still further. The changes in state parallel changes in energy: from high energy to medium energy to barely jiggling.

Boiling water expands into a gas (steam) and wafts off into the kitchen. But we also see water expand when chilled in the freezer. An ice cube tray filled to the rim the night before overflows with big cubes of ice in the morning.

Water starts out behaving normally. As its temperature drops, water obediently shrinks together--until it reaches 4 degrees Celsius (39 degrees F.). Then, amazingly, water reverses course, its volume slowly increasing as it chills. When water finally freezes, at 0 C (32 F.), it expands dramatically.
(snip)
http://www.word-detective.com/howcome/waterexpand.html

[LiberallyInclined]

12. you were wrong...i was correct

water expands as it freezes.

[Massacure]

16. Not exactly.

Water contracts as it gets colder, and expands as it gets water as normal at most temperatures, except zero to four degrees celcius. During those temperatures the hydrogen bonds break or form in a way to flips the effect. That is only between zero and four degrees celcius though.

[Zynx]

22. It's the ice sheets on land, not the icebergs/ sea ice.

The North Pole melting does nothing to the volume of the ocean. Greenland and Anatarctica melting can do a great deal.

[Boomer]

5. Help chart climate change!

The article had links to several interesting climate-related issues, including this one:

Bleak first results from the world’s largest climate change experiment

http://www.physorg.com/news2831.html

Chief scientist for climateprediction.net, David Stainforth, from Oxford University said: “Our experiment shows that increased levels of greenhouse gases could have a much greater impact on climate than previously thought.”

(snip)

The project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, is ongoing and involves more than 95,000 people from 150 countries. Schools, businesses and individuals across the globe can download the free software which incorporates the Met Office’s climate model and runs in the background when their computers lie idle.

(snip)

Participants have simulated over four million model years and donated over 8,000 years of computing time, making climateprediction.net easily the world's largest climate modelling experiment, comfortably exceeding the processing capacity of the world's largest supercomputers. This allows the project to explore a wide range of uncertainties, picking up previously unidentified high-impact possibilities.

--------------------------

I've GOT to sign up for this!!

[nolabels]

6. I don't know about signing up for anything but this seemed kind ..........

neat also (from your link to the last story)

DAILY ROTATION
Quick Loading Headlines From 300+ Tech Sites
You Pick The Sites. We Snag The Headlines
http://www.dailyrotation.com/

[Mojorabbit]

14. I have this on my computer

It runs in the background and does not slow it down a bit. Has a neat screensaver too...

[Lisa]

7. it's still not too late ...

The numbers presented at the British conference earlier this year suggested that a warming of more than 2 deg C would devastate many ecosystems and agricultural production in many areas. Beyond 3, and we'd really be venturing into the unknown. Conditions a degree or so warmer are not so bad and aren't so far removed from historical changes (e.g. during the post-glacial optimum, and possibly during the Medieval Warm Period in some areas?).

Basically -- if governments had acted earlier, it would have made a significant difference (most models seem to be projecting changes in the 2-3 degree range, I think?).

If we can keep the changes down to 2 degrees or less, by reducing emissions and not messing with natural sequestration processes (cutting down trees, pouring on nitrogen fertilizer, and pumping car exhaust and other things into the air that hog the atmosphere's cleansing capacity) -- it would be a triumph, relatively speaking.

[ktowntennesseedem]

9. The nay-sayers will use this to absolve them of resposibility.

Since it is inevitable anyway, why worry about global warming? We may as well burn up all the oil and coal and enjoy our SUVs and Hummers while we can!

I know, I know, even if human waste and greed are not at all to blame for the mess we're in, we should still work to make our world better and learn from it ways to better live in harmony with it.

[slackmaster]

11. It's always been in a state of change, and it always will be

We may throw it off its natural rhythms in some way, but there is no reason to believe that the climate would stop changing if we stopped releasing greenhouse gasses, cutting down forests, polluting the oceans, etc.

[Baclava]

13. Resistance is futile...Life is change

Not that it will mean anything...just like those creatures from the Tethys Sea whose bones are now on top of Mt Everest...I bet they figured their world would stay the same forever too.

[mom cat]

15. The time frame of 5200 years ago corresponds to the social

upheavals reported by Rianne Eisler in The Chalice and the Blade. She notes the work of Marta Gimbutas who studied the pre-patriarchal cultures in Old Europe ( the historical one not the * fiction)and the violent overthrow by aggressive tribes from the north. She postulated that there was some sort of possible dramatic climate shift that set climate refugees on the move in desperate search of food and a more hospitable climate. She posits that this might account for the initial wave of conquests of more peaceful cultures. She further posits that once the dominator pattern had been established, that it became self-replicating and started the wheels of oppression in motion. This is the first time I have noticed actual evidence of dramatic climate change that corresponds to this theory. If that is what the last drastic climate change event did to "humanity", I am sot looking forward to the one that is now spinning out of control. :cry:

[Silverhair]

17. The I have some optimism for you.

Read: "Nonzero, The Logic of Human Destiny" by Robert Wright. He takes a super long historical look at humanity and shows how the events, like wars, that we have though were so evil, (And they are evil.) have also caused humans to for larger and larger cooperative organizations. He predicts that there will soon be a world gov't that is basically a capitalist democracy.

[mom cat]

18. Thanks for the shred of hope. I needed that! Happy equinox!

O8) :hug::loveya::hug: O8)

[Toots]

19. What I don't understand is if God created Earth six thousand years ago

Why do these "fundies" keep saying Global warming could not be man's fault because it has happened so many times before...The last major "Ice Age" (aka The Wurm) happened over ten thousand years ago..long before God Intelligently designed the earth....:shrug: Their arguments seem to flip-flop about depending on the time of day I guess..

[Donkeyboy75]

20. To be fair, I don't really think the fundies say that.

Those that are so far gone that they truly believe the earth is only 6000 years old give more simplistic reasons like "God will provide for us" or some crap like that.

[Donkeyboy75]

21. Climate models are still very primitive,

and don't take into account many factors. We could actually see global cooling if the glacier/cap ice melt shuts down the warmer ocean currents. I'm not suggesting that humans do nothing, but rather the opposite. If, for instance, we decide that global warming is inevitable and take steps to combat the effects of warming, we'll be doubly fucked when the opposite occurs.