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Yes, the Reluctant Republican Responder (3%) was a KERRY voter!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:12 AM
Original message
Yes, the Reluctant Republican Responder (3%) was a KERRY voter!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:05 AM by TruthIsAll
Peace Patriot explains convincingly why if there was a
Reluctant Republican Responder, he or she was most likely a
Kerry voter (rRrK). That makes a lot of sense, intuitively and
mathematically. We should adjust the exit poll to account for
that famous 56-50% differential response.

If one analyzes the 13047 Exit Poll (the Final 13660 has been
proven IMPOSSIBLE), one quickly sees that it does not reflect
powerful anecdotal evidence that significantly more
Republicans voted for Kerry than Democrats voted for Bush.
Peace Patriot has just told us why.

*******************************************************
This is the Exit Poll of 13047 respondents (w/o rRrK)				
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%	
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%	
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%	
	        100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%	100.0%
            122.26	58.40	61.97	1.88

The odds that Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%: 
            1 in	303 million!

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)					
*************************************************************

Adjusting the calculation to assume that 3% rRrK (and 10% of
all Republicans) voted for Kerry, with a corresponding
increase in Republican Party ID to 36%):						

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	36%	89%	10%	1%	100.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%
	        100%	47.16%	51.32%	1.52%	100.0%
	      122.26	57.66	62.74	1.86	

	Odds: 1 in 761 billion!	

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4716,0.01/1.96,TRUE)

*************************************************************

EVEN IF WE ASSUME A 36 DEM/38 REPUB MIX, KERRY STILL WINS BY
OVER 1 MILLION VOTES!

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
Democrat 	36%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%
Republican 	38%	89%	10%	1%	100.0%
Independent	26%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%
	        100%	48.76%	49.72%	1.52%	100.0%
	      122.26	59.61	60.79	1.86	
					
	Odds: 1 in	17 thousand!			
	
					
								
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 01:37 AM
Response to Original message
1. Nice synergy with Peace Patriot!
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:43 AM by autorank
But seriously, just because the odds are 1 in 500 trillion doesn't change the old sayings: "They're two sides to every argument" and "Anything can happen."

How many ways does this need to be demonstrated before people snap out of their trance and face the Truth?

Exit polls deposed a tyrant in the Ukraine and our government endorsed it. I don't know of anybody who has started threads on Ukrainian forums questioning the validity of exit polling to achieve that end. Do you?

Exit polls quickly predicted the results of an excruciatingly complex electoral process in Great Britain last night. Any English election critics questioning those exit polls? It doesn't matter because the polls and the votes match.

But when it comes to our country, we have the tortured theory of American exceptionalism. In America, we're asked to believe that water runs uphill, the law of gravity does not apply, and pigs live in trees.

Enough of the silly quibbling and dilly dallying.

We were screwed and American 2004 election polls prove it. They're not the only proof but their message is compelling and decisive. Enough to launch a broad based investigation and to require our political leaders to step forward and demand the truth be told.

But hey, that's just my opinion. Maybe pigs do live in trees. I got my degree from Weird Science High School.
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Nothing Without Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 02:17 AM
Response to Original message
2. Here's the Peace Patriot post on this
Edited on Sat May-07-05 02:17 AM by Nothing Without Hope
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Thread title: Peace Patriot --- Because this Post deserves its own thread

Recommended. Thanks, TIA! :thumbsup:
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. you know I have to say that I met some of those
REluctant Repub Kerry voters--and I think you guys are on to something. There were a few folks I met in FL that after a few minutes of talking--I think they were a little hesitant talking to me since I ran teams of Kerry volunteers---

But there a few folks that once they warmed up---said they voted for Bush the 1st time---but COULDNT in 2004-- ANd even then they didnt say it very loud. If you know what I mean.

I hadnt really thought about that--until now---
ANd now something is beginning to make sense.
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lessthanjake Donating Member (436 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-08-05 10:38 AM
Response to Original message
4. One problem
I had been following polls A LOT before the election. And 99% of them had bush getting more democrat votes than kerry was getting republican votes.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-08-05 02:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. One Problem. Name them. Do you have a link?
Edited on Sun May-08-05 02:48 PM by TruthIsAll
/
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bleever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-09-05 09:08 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kick.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-11-05 03:52 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. KICK
/
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