Collective Bellaciao, France: Science proves that vote fraud is real!

[MelissaB]

Sunday 3rd April 2005 (19h09) :

Science proves that vote fraud is real!

Vote fraud confirmed: US Count Votes has come out with a remarkable paper authored by a committee of twelve, most of them highly-qualified mathematicians and statisticians from major universities. This study highlights the serious ramifications of the exit poll discrepancy while demolishing the "chatty Dem" theory (more properly known as the "reluctant responder" theory), which remains the official explanation for that incongruity.
The only possibility left is vote alteration.

Alas, this important scientific study has yet to make an impact. The media, distracted by the Pope’s death, hasn’t noticed that Uncle Sam is also facing the Reaper. The only significant coverage of this report has appeared in the Akron Beacon Journal.

For those of you who are paying attention, the full analysis is here. An "executive summary" is here.

And if you’d like an ultra-brief summary of the summary:

The exit poll discrepancy in the 2004 American presidential election was the largest in the poll’s history -- about five-and-a-half percent. The odds against the polls being so wrong are roughly one in a million. The "chatty Dem" theory is nonsense: Responses to the pollsters were higher in Republican strongholds -- where the exit poll discrepancies were widest.

Answer that, Mr. Mitofsky.

I suppose the only (weak) counter-argument he might offer would be along these lines: For some reason, Kerry supporters in Bush strongholds -- but not in Democratic precincts -- were remarkably eager to push all others aside and commandeer the pollsters. Not only is this scenario counterintuitive, it goes against all previous experience. It also goes against Mitofski’s own data.

Once again, I would remind readers of another oddity besetting these troubling exit polls: On November 2, 2004, pollsters did not restrict inquiries to the votes cast on that date. They also asked voters about the 2000 election. 43% of the respondents said they had chosen Bush on that previous occasion, while 37% reported having cast a ballot for Al Gore.

But Gore WON the popular vote. This simple fact -- which even math illiterates should be able to comprehend easily -- proves that the exit pollsters favored Republicans, not Democrats.

Author Josh Mitteldorff, in the executive summary of the US Count Votes report, does not favor the theory that touch screen voting had greater error rates than did punch cards. However, on page 18 of the report proper, we see data suggesting that mechanical voting machines had a significantly higher error rate than did paper ballots.

How to resolve this seeming contradiction? I remind readers that punch cards are run through a computerized central tabulator -- the "mother machine," as Teresa Heinz-Kerry once put it. Absentee ballots and provisionals must be counted by hand.

>>>snip

Returning our attention to the new US Count Votes report:

So far, the best analysis of this analysis comes from Newsclip Autopsy. Highly recommend reading.

Here’s an important excerpt:


The exit polls for the 2004 election not only tabulated views from the Presidential election. It also received information about the voters intentions for the U.S. Senate races. Guess what?! Yup. Strangely enough, the exit polls were far more accurate at determining who would win for Senator. As history shows us, there is no precedent for widespread "ticket-splitting" in other elections. That is, if you vote democratic for President, there is an overwhelming probability that you would vote democratic for the Senator. US Vote Counts summarizes this peculiarity this way:
"There is no logic to account for non-responders or missed voters when discussing the
difference in the accuracy of results for the Senate versus the presidential races in the same exit poll."

No logic, indeed. Unless this is a nation where "multiple personality disorder" is present in epidemic proportions!!! To allay that particular fear, this report confirmed another startling finding which was observed in a previous report by the same group. Exit polling accuracy was dependent on whether the election ballots were hand-counted or not!! This is a highly significant finding, considering that, in Ohio, only a non-random 3% of the ballots were hand recounted. Many of these instances had recounts which were different from the machine counts.

And how did Ken Blackwell, the corrupt Ohio Secretary of State, respond to all this?

"What are you going to do except laugh at it?" said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, who’s responsible for administering Ohio’s elections and is a Republican candidate for governor. "We’re not particularly interested in (the report’s findings)."
There you have it: Laughter directed at science. Laughter directed at ten PhDs. As though placing the topic behind a curtain of guffaws replaces the need for a counter-argument.
Once more, the Republicans assail Reason itself.

Please do everything you can to publicize the work of US Count Votes. This important scientific analysis should be leading all other headlines on Buzzflash, Bush Watch, Air America, Daily Kos...not to mention the New York Times, CBS, ABC and the rest of the mainstream media. Alas, even the wonderful blog by John Conyers has not yet covered this report.

More: http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=5667

[AWorkerBee]

1. We all pretty much knew this.

Remember on election Day, everyone was relaxed because we KNEW Kerry would win, then around 4:00 things changed.

They certainly stole the election.

[berniew1]

2. And there's analysis and documentation other than Exit Polls that give sam

similar conclusions.

DREs lots of glitches and switching and undercounts and unreliable
http://www.votersunite.org myth breakers and messups

swing of 350,000 in Florida due to irregularities
http://www.flcv.com/fla04EAS.html

similar in other states
http://www.flcv.com/summary.html

[berniew1]

3. Comments requested regarding the assumptions and details used here

[Kip Humphrey]

4. Links please!

[MelissaB]

5. It's at the very bottom of the post.

[Dancing_Dave]

6. Bellaciao Rocks!

U2 :yourock: :pals:

[MelissaB]

7. I love Bellaciao, too!

Thanks, Dancing_Dave! :pals:

[TruthIsAll]

8. Bella Ciao, you neglected to mention the most important fact of all...

"Once again, I would remind readers of another oddity besetting these troubling exit polls: On November 2, 2004, pollsters did not restrict inquiries to the votes cast on that date. They also asked voters about the 2000 election. 43% of the respondents said they had chosen Bush on that previous occasion, while 37% reported having cast a ballot for Al Gore".

The hell with the RBR!
THE 43% for Bush is IMPOSSIBLE!
THE 43% NUMBER WAS FABRICATED TO AGREE WITH THE VOTE COUNT!

43% of the 122.26 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57 million.
BUT BUSH GOT ONLY 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000!
THAT'S A DIFFERENCE OF 2.11 MILLION.
THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL BY 2.11 MILLION VOTES.

BUT WE KNOW THAT APPROXIMATELY 3.5% OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED (1.77 MILLION) BEFORE ELECTION 2004.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11= 3.88 MILLION VOTES.

BUT THAT ASSUMES 100% of BUSH 2000 VOTERS CAME TO THE POLLS IN 2004.
WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST SOME STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE.
HOW MANY? WHO KNOWS?

LET'S ASSUME IT'S 1% OF 50.456 MILLION = 504,560 VOTES FOR THE HELL OF IT..,

ADD THE .50 MILLION TO THE 3.88 MILLION AND THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 4.38 MILLION VOTES.

SO THE BUSH VOTE = 62.03 - 4.38 =57.65 MILLION
ASSUME THEY ALL WENT TO KERRY.

SO THE FINAL KERRY VOTE MUST BE:
59.03+ 4.38 = 63.41 MILLION VOTES
THAT LEAVES 1.20 MILLION FOR NADER ET AL.

NOW 63.41/122.26 = 51.86% FOR KERRY
AND 57.65/122.26 = 47.15% FOR BUSH
AND 1.20/122.26 = 0.98% FOR NADER ET AL

BUT WAIT.
WE ARE NOT DONE YET.
WANT MORE OF THIS?
HOW MANY BUSH 2000 VOTERS DECIDED TO VOTE FOR KERRY THIS TIME?

OH, FORGET IT.