THE BARE TRUTH WHICH SHOULD HAVE FLIPPED OUT THE DEMOCRATS BY NOW.

[TruthIsAll]

In the electoral-vote.com vote map, the four states noted as “Barely” Bush are: OH, NM, IA, NV

In the statistical comparison of deviations between the exit polls and the vote, the four states which flipped from Kerry in the exit poll to Bush in the vote are: OH, NM, IA, FL

It's almost a perfect one-to-one match, except for FL and NV.
Kerry’s 2-party NV exit poll was 49.4%, so it almost made the flip list.
Kerry’s 2-party FL exit poll was 50.5%, so it barely made the flip list.

These four states which flipped have 59 electoral votes.
Added to Kerry's 252, he had 311 EV's.
Exactly what Zogby's final polls said.

But, of course, Zogby was wrong.
What does he know about polls?
Has he ever been right?

And Mitofsky was wrong, also.
What does he know about exit polls?
Has he ever been right?

As any naysayer will tell you, exit polls are not designed to predict the vote.
They are only used to show how various demographic groups voted, not how people voted.
Like men and women.

And though most people said they voted for Kerry, actually most voted for Bush.
But they were reluctant to say so.

It's almost a perfect one-to-one match, except for FL and NV.
Kerry’s 2-party NV exit poll was 49.4%, so it almost made the flip list.
Kerry’s 2-party FL exit poll was 50.5%, so it barely made the flip list.

BUSH NEEDED BOTH FLORIDA AND OHIO TO WIN.
KERRY NEEDED ONLY ONE.

Have there been any voting anomalies and/or incidents in these states which favored Kerry?

Have there been any voting anomalies and/or incidents in these states which favored Bush?



Go here for a comprehensive Red Shift vs. Margin of Error analysis:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=300746

[peacetalksforall]

1. Bush needed OH and FL to win...so they stole them.

The truth will come out.

[spooked]

2. And they called Kerry a Flip Flopper!

They knew it was all coming down to OHIO and FLORIDA

[tanyev]

3. Secretaries of State OH and NV

w/leadership roles in Bush/Cheney re-election campaign. What's the story with IA and NM?

[fooj]

4. Something tells me that this national nightmare may be over...

sooner than we think! The TRUTH has a way of catching up to you and biting you right in the ass! :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[Peace Patriot]

5. The evidence against a Bush win is overwhelming...

Dr. Steven Freeman's 2nd report on the Exit Polls dispatches the Exit Poll debunkers. All of these expert reports are well-written, easy to read, and cast profound doubt on the 2004 Election results.

Exit poll analysis: astronomical odds against Bush win

Dr. Steven Freeman 1st study: http://www.truthout.org/unexplainedexitpoll.pdf
(also at: http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/Expldiscrpv00oPt1.pdf)
Dr. Steven Freeman 2nd study: http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm
Dr. Ron Baiman: http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2004/997
Dr. Webb Mealy: http://www.selftest.net/redshift.htm
Jonathan Simon:http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

(Florida: 130,000 to 230,000 phantom votes for Bush--paper vs. electronic voting:)
Dr. Michael Haut & UC Berkeley stats team: http://ucdata.berkeley.edu

ignatzmouse:
(North Carolina: absentee ballot vs. electronic, inexplicable 6% edge to Bush in electronic:)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x45003
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/12/233831/06

Johns Hopkins report on insecurity of electronic voting (general): http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0307/S00196.htm#5

Ohio vote suppression: http://www.bpac.info

TruthIsAll: "To believe Bush won, you have to believe…"

Part 1
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1316010

Part 2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1358806

Part 3
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x197878

------

Why are Democrats not flipped out about this?

I think it's a combination of corruption ($3.5 billion in HAVA money to the states; Diebold wining and dining), profound negligence and dereliction of duty, and predominance of War Party politicians within the Democratic leadership (they want the Iraq War, and approve of US domination in the Middle East, but would just as soon Bush take the rap for the deaths of 100,000 innocent people).

But, frankly, I don't really understand this, nor why Democratic leaders sat back and allowed an inherently fraudulent election system to be put in place--with BushCon companies owning the secret proprietary source code that counts all our votes--an election system that seriously harms Democrats, and that will prevent us from ever again electing a progressive Congress or a Democratic president.

Go figure.

[Mistwell]

7. BOTH of Freeman's reports throughly debunked

For the second one, see:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_is_the_sam.html

"Freeman has recently updated his paper with calculations that rely on this 30% estimate. However, following my post I received an email from Nick Panagakis informing me that the 30% estimate was out of date (Panagakis is the president of a Market Shares Corporation, a polling firm that has conducted exit polls in Wisconsin and other Midwestern states). Panagakis had checked with Warren Mitofsky, director of the NEP exit poll, and learned that the updated design effect used in 2004 assumed a 50% to 80% increase in error over simple random sampling (with the range depending on the number of precincts sampled in a given state). Blogger Rick Brady (Stones Cry Out) has subsequently confirmed that information in an email exchange with Mitofsky that he posted on his website.

Thus, the calculations in Freeman’s revised paper continue to understate the sampling error for the 2004 exit polls (more on this in a post to follow)."



This is followed up recently with interviews WITH THE ACTUAL PEOPLE WHO CONDUCTED THIS EXIT POLL, and it found that, low and behold, the exit pollers screwed it up.

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2005/01/professor_m.html

[RaulVB]

13. False (n/t)

[deacon2]

16. False

Your headline is false and misleading. The report you cite has been discredited as lacking fundamental components in polling methodology by experts at this site and elsewhere. Yet you persist. Why?

[Karenca]

19. the persistance is because....

the igoring stage and the laughing stage are past.
So, The fighting stage has begun.
Next, we win.


PROVE TO ME B*sh WON!!!!!

What the History books will tell about this dictator!!!!

kerry won!!!
kerry won!!!
kerry!!!!! :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem: :dem:

[Pacifist Patriot]

21. God Bless Gandhi

:thumbsup:

[ROH]

18. What is the explanation for this?

http://www.exitpollz.org/pages/colorado.html

"As we see that the exit poll for the Senatorial election in Colorado was spot on!

It should be noted that it was the same respondents who were interviewed first on how they had voted in the presidential and then in the senatorial election.

So what is the explanation for the much less accurate exit poll
for the President?"

[davidgmills]

20. Mystery Pollster

Where is his PhD?

He's just on somebody's payroll.

[bleever]

6. "Exit polls only show how men and women voted;

but the election is about the big picture."

Give us a f**kin' break.

There's an 800 pound gorilla in the room here.

How long can they ignore it?

Keep it coming, TIA.

:thumbsup:

[Al-CIAda]

8. Voting Fraud in the USA: A Tale of Two Brothers

Voting Fraud in the USA:  A Tale of Two Brothers
You've heard of the song The Day the Music Died? Well, today is the Day Democracy Died. Actually, that day probably came about 4 years ago, the first time Bush stole the election.

continued-
http://nightweed.com/VoterFraudATaleofTwoBrothers.html

[Peace Patriot]

9. Freeman plus 8 other Ph.D's blow Mitofsky's post-election B.S. away...

Count 'em, NINE PH.D'S calling for a full investigation of the 2004 Election!

-------

"Summary

"As citizens in a democracy, we have an abiding interest in the integrity of the election process.

"The Edison/Mitofsky report confirms there were large differences between their exit polls and the official results of the 2004 presidential election – much more so than in previous elections. The national exit poll indicated a 3 point victory for Kerry; whereas the official election results indicated that he lost by 2.5%, a difference of 5.5%.

"The Edison/Mitofsky report fails to substantiate their hypothesis that the difference between their exit polls and official election results should be explained by problems with the exit polls. They assert without supporting evidence that (p. 4), “Kerry voters were more likely to participate in the exit polls than Bush voters.” In fact, data included within the report suggest that the opposite might be true.

"Their analysis of the potential correlation of exit poll errors with voting machine type is incomplete and inadequate, and their report ignores the alternative hypothesis that the official election results could have been corrupted.

"The Edison/Mitofsky report states (p.12), “We need to do more investigation into the causes of the statistical skew in the exit poll data for the general election.” USCountVotes agrees, and we suggest that that investigation extend to the official vote count tallies. In this context, USCountVotes affirms our mission to create and analyze a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States in order to do a thorough mathematical analysis of the 2004 election results.

"We invite all those who care about democratic processes in this country to join us in fully investigating and explaining what really happened in the 2004 Presidential election.

Contributors and Supporters include:

Josh Mitteldorf, Ph.D. - Temple University Statistics Department
Kathy Dopp, MS in mathematics - USCountVotes, President
Steven F. Freeman, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics, University of Pennsylvania
Brian Joiner, PhD - Prof. of Statistics and Director of Statistical Consulting (ret), University of Wisconsin
Frank Stenger, PhD in mathematics - School of Computing, University of Utah
Richard G. Sheehan, PhD - Department of Finance, University of Notre Dame
Elizabeth Liddle, MA - (UK) PhD candidate at the University of Nottingham
Paul F. Velleman, Ph.D. - Department of Statistical Sciences, Cornell University
Victoria Lovegren, Ph.D. - Department of Mathematics, Case Western Reserve University
Campbell B. Read, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Department of Statistical Science, Southern Methodist University

Also Peer Reviewed by USCountVotes’ core group of statisticians and independent reviewers.

Press Contact: Bruce O'Dell, USCountVotes, Vice President [email protected]

This document can be found here:
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/USCountVotes_Re_...

------

Goldeneye's post should have a stronger title, like: "NINE PH.D'S CALL FOR FULL INVESTIGATION OF 2004 ELECTION!". See...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=309093

[intensitymedia]

10. thanks for your continuing great work - n/t

[livvy]

11. Underestimation

I was aware of many of these things before the election. They were in the back of my mind, but what was in the forefront was....they wouldn't dare do it again. I couldn't wrap my mind around this possibility. It would just be too transparent after 2000. I also falsely assumed there were checks in place, that others would be watching. But the rope I clung to was that they just wouldn't be so bold as to do it again. I was wrong. They were that bold and confident they could get away with it again. In fact, they were so bold that they did more than they did in 2000. They padded the popular vote, and stole more than one state this time.
It's mind-boggling. I know it, you know it, millions know it, and millions more probably suspect or question it, but who's sitting in the White House? How can this be?
I checked out the site you got the map from every day during the campaign. It was the one I considered most reliable because of the methods he employed. He still has all the data he used, but I'm sure you know that already.
With all the evidence that is out there, including the fine work you have done, I don't see how anyone can deny what happened. Circumstantial evidence has put many an accused behind bars. What has been collected since Nov. 2 is a huge amount of evidence, even if some consider it circumstantial and not a "smoking gun". Yet, the dimwit and his dangerous crew are still strutting their stuff. It's a true head-shaker for me, even knowing what I do about the extent of their reach.
I guess today is one of my impatient days, when I feel like things just aren't moving fast enough. I feel like going up to everyone I meet, slappin' them upside the head, and screaming in their face, "Wake up, dummy! Get your act together, and do something."
Things are coming along. It's just so slow, time-consuming, and to quote the dimwit, "hard work". We can't let up the pressure on *&Co, or stop giving our continual support to those that are doing things in Congress.
As frustrating as it is, I refuse to give up. What has happened isn't right, wasn't meant to be, endangers our country and others around the world, and just isn't tolerable.

[Peace Patriot]

12. livvy, I'm so with you! Right on! Never give up!

I had that same thought leading up to the election--they wouldn't dare do it again!

However, I had two things that blunted the emotional blow on election night, 1) I knew about electronic voting, and figured their scam out right away--that really helped; and 2) a good friend had warned me that he thought Bush and Cheney & Co. seemed much too arrogant and self-assured after the debacle of their campaign (the 9/11 hearings, the R. Clarke book and testimony, the outing of Valerie Plame, the disasters in Iraq, the torture revelations, Bush's idiot performance in the debates, the huge new Dem voter registration, Bush's dismal approval ratings at election time, etc., etc. )--they were acting like they didn't care, and he figured they had it all set up to steal it again (which we now know they did).

The thing I think is most difficult to deal with now--in terms of, how do we get ourselves out of this mess?--is the bad emotional state that many Kerry voters got into, over the election, and the seeming paralysis of many Dem leaders (with some notable exceptions!).

I am very dismayed about Michael Moore--whom I think is suffering the same syndrome (great shock, then denial). He's still trying to explain how Bush "won" (interview yesterday). He's a smart guy--as are many of the Dem politicos. What the hell's the matter with them?

Some of the Dem politicos are just cynical and/or members of the DC War Party. But Michael Moore???

So it's emotional shock, for many. And those of us who were able to overcome that shock and start looking at the facts have to be THERAPISTS first of all, and also TRUTHTELLERS--in order to get our democracy back.

One way to get people mobilized is to get involved in the state by state struggle over election rules. EVERYBODY (or nearly everybody) can agree that we need a transparent election system, and almost anybody could plainly see that the current one is egregiously NON-transparent and fraud-prone.

Maybe don't hit 'em with all the facts at once. Don't say "There WAS massive fraud." Say, "There are a lot of suspicions--dozens of Ph.D's in statistics are calling the Bush win into question--and there is no way to audit or recount much of it."

Then get that petition, or letter writing contact info., into their hands, fast. GIVE THEM SOMETHING TO DO ABOUT IT.

[RaulVB]

14. TIA, I would ask you to "quit..."

The USA "Exit polls" accuracy has been "completely debunked" by the "Mistery pollster", Mark Blumenthal...

"I'm sorry"

[Emit]

15. I'm a flipped out Dem in NV...

I met with the lone anti-war/election fraud activist in Reno, Patrica Axelrod, yesterday, and she shared with me some election documents that she has obtained from our good ol' boy SOS Dean Heller (R). She hasn't got her hands on all of the docs she requested yet, and is still going to be required to pay $1.00 per page, but she seems tenacious enough to get to the bottom of what exactly happened here in NV. I'm trying to get a handle on any anomalies in NV, so this info helps a bit. She has asked me to go over some of these docs in more detail next week. And the more insight and info we have about NV, the better we might be able to recognize any anomalies.


Here is the AP article (From Reno Gazette Journal) about her:
http://www.rgj.com/news/printstory.php?id=90830
<<snip>>
ASSOCIATED PRESS
1/28/2005 12:00 am

A judge ruled that Nevada Secretary of State Dean Heller must let a
Reno woman copy records she sought to verify the result of November's
presidential election.

While Patricia Axelrod, a Democrat, was able to see the documents last fall, she claimed in a lawsuit that Heller's office refused to provide copies and charged an excessive copying fee of $1 per page.
Heller, a Republican, said Axelrod simply didn't want to pay the fee, and his office didn't have some documents she requested.

In his Wednesday ruling, Carson City District Judge William Maddox did not find that Heller refused Axelrod's requests. The judge said he would address the appropriateness of the copying fee later.
<<snip>>

Axelrod sought preliminary and final official election documents from all 17 Nevada counties. She said she wanted to prove her theory that malfeasance and machine malfunctions "swayed our blue state into a red." Axelrod said when she filed the lawsuit in December that citizens have a right to know if George Bush fairly won the presidential contest over Democrat John Kerry.

Bush won Nevada's five electoral votes with a 21,500-vote margin over Kerry.
<<snip>>



Thanks, TruthIsAll, for all of your number-crunching. I've been following it for some time now.
P.S.
Did you know that you were noted/cited in this article?

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE501A.html
The Strange Death of American Democracy:
Endgame in Ohio
by Michael Keefer

[Wilms]

17. Thank TIA n/t

[MadisonProgressive]

22. Thanks again, TIA

Oh and to, mistwell...:puffpiece:

[understandinglife]

23. a TBO;24/7 kick (nt)

BE THE BUSH OPPOSITION;24/7

(in case you or someone you know needs a reason why -- just look at this http://www.zonaeuropa.com/01467.htm )

[SpiralHawk]

24. Kique complimentary

Thanks so much for this daily thread. A great way to keep up, and to keep hope alive.

"President Bush has said that he does not need approval from the UN to wage war, and I'm thinking, well, hell, he didn't need the approval of the American voters to become president, either." -- David Letterman

[RockStar]

25. Very nice and great job on the stats and analysis