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Freeman disputes critique of his analysis of exit poll discrepancy

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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-21-05 11:59 PM
Original message
Freeman disputes critique of his analysis of exit poll discrepancy
Edited on Sat Jan-22-05 12:05 AM by Amaryllis
Stolen or Lost?

By Steven F. Freeman, AlterNet. Posted January 20, 2005.

Freeman, a polling expert, disputes journalist Russ Baker's critique of his work analyzing the exit poll discrepancy.

Editor's Note: This is in response to Russ Baker's "Election 2004: Stolen or Lost," originally posted on TomPaine.com.

Russ Baker's critique of my work analyzing the exit poll discrepancy ("Election 2004: Stolen or Lost") and, by implication, of the courageous stand taken by John Conyers and a small number of his Congressional colleagues is flawed from the first line. No one has said, "Exit poll results were more accurate than actual ballots." The question is whether the official count is an accurate reflection of ballots cast. In a system where campaign managers serve as election supervisors, where voting machines provide no assurance that votes are counted as cast, and where counts and "recounts" are conducted in secret, we must rely, unfortunately, on indirect evidence, such as exit polls, to ascertain the veracity of this official count as a measure of actual ballots cast.

Baker's critique begins with a sloppy attempt to shoot the messenger, questioning my credentials. For the record, since obtaining my Ph.D. in organization studies from the MIT Sloan School of Management in 1998, I have served for three years as an accredited member of the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania originally at Wharton and now in the School of Arts and Sciences; and the remainder of that time at equivalently demanding institutions in Latin America, including an international MBA program established by Harvard University.

Baker discards my findings because I am "not an expert in polling," but I teach research methods and survey design (a domain that includes polling) at the University of Pennsylvania.

A study of election integrity also requires an understanding of election practices and voting systems, and, most importantly, an ability and willingness to investigate a complex subject in which the data and the accompanying official pronouncements are themselves suspect. I hold degrees in both political science and systems science, and have received four national awards for best research paper of the year on four different topics in three different fields. The position I hold this year as visiting scholar in the University of Pennsylvania's School of Arts and Sciences, provided on the basis of these research accomplishments, affords me freedom to conduct interdisciplinary research of broad significance and obliges me to teach research methodology and help develop applied research capabilities at the University's Center for Organizational Dynamics and the school.

More:
http://www.alternet.org/story/21036 /
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Moderator DU Moderator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-22-05 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
1. Great article Amaryllis, thanks for posting
But please remember DU copyright rules. Only four paragraph excerpts from copyrighted articles are permitted.
Thank you.
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-22-05 12:08 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I was editing as you wrote this! I thought it was only for copyrighted
Edited on Sat Jan-22-05 12:15 AM by Amaryllis
articles and this wasn't copyrighted, but I went and checked the rules to make sure the four paragraph rule applied just to copyrighted articles. The short form of the rules just said "articles" so I took out all but four paragraphs.
Four paragraphs whether copyrighted or not? Is this right?
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Goldeneye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-22-05 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
3. Good article.
I wonder what freeman has to say about the report from mitofsky.
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