PUNCHES, TOUCHSCREAMS,OPTISCAMS: Exit Poll Deviations vs. Machine Problems

[TruthIsAll]

Thanks to DUer bleever for the machine error data in response to my post on exit poll deviations and voting machines earlier today.

Machine problems appear to be most prevalent in states with large minority populations - AND A SIGNIFICANT RED SHIFT TO BUSH.

Look at LA! and NM, GA, FL, OH, PA, NY, DC....

Punched cards and Levers: NY, OH, PA, CT (Red Shifts beyond the MOE) and LA.

Touchscreens and Optiscans: FL, GA




It's the Red Shift again, this time the deviations weighted by Electoral Vote. This graph shows where Bush got his biggest popular vote bang for the exit poll deviation buck.



Also included on the graph for each state: the voting machines used, by percentage. Thanks to Pobeka for this data.

The punched cards and Lever machine states are interesting.


Check NY. Punched cards using Levers. Could it be that lots of the punch cards were spoiled due to machine malfunction or something else? Could it be that this has been going on forever as these machines go way back to the beginning of the 20th century?

They say that 3-5 million punched card votes are spoiled every year, due to a combination of machine malfunction and fraud. We know what happened in FL 2000 and OH 2004. Hundreds of thousands of spoiled votes. And the vast majority of them were in Democratic districts.


For those who prefer their data in table form, see Post # 1.

[TruthIsAll]

1. Data Table: Kerry Exit Poll Deviations and Voting Machine Types

States are ranked by multiplying the electoral vote by the
exit poll deviation. This ranking approximates the popular
vote red shift.
The weighted ranking is a method to determine the states which
were  most important, i.e.,  had the biggest Red Shift impact.

Kerry Exit Poll Deviations and Voting Machine Percentage Mix

St	EV*Dev	EV	Dev	Screen	Opti	Punch	Lever	Paper
NY	-118	31	-3.8	1	0	0	99	0
FL	-82	27	-3.0	56	44	0	0	0
PA	-70	21	-3.4	26	12	12	49	1
OH	-62	20	-3.1	16	12	72	0	0
NC	-60	15	-4.0	43	43	9	2	5

IL	-42	21	-2.0	0	32	63	0	5
MA	-40	12	-3.4	0	69	0	6	25
SC	-37	8	-4.6	86	14	0	0	0
AL	-36	9	-4.0	15	85	0	0	0
MN	-30	10	-3.0	0	91	0	0	9

GA	-24	15	-1.6	100	0	0	0	0
CT	-24	7	-3.4	0	0	0	100	0
NE	-22	5	-4.4	0	56	0	0	44
NJ	-22	15	-1.5	73	1	0	25	0
NH	-20	4	-4.9	0	65	0	0	35

MS	-20	6	-3.3	15	68	9	8	0
LA	-19	9	-2.1	54	0	0	46	0
WV	-18	10	-1.8	8	42	37	6	7
IN	-18	11	-1.6	79	0	20	1	1
MI	-17	17	-1.0	4	60	20	12	4

MO	-17	11	-1.5	0	12	65	0	23
WA	-16	11	-1.4	14	63	23	0	0
AZ	-15	6	-2.6	0	100	0	0	0
DE	-15	3	-5.0	100	0	0	0	0
UT	-15	5	-2.9	0	0	9	0	91

CO	-15	9	-1.6	37	61	1	0	0
VT	-14	3	-4.8	0	51	0	0	49
RI	-14	4	-3.4	0	100	0	0	0
AK	-13	3	-4.4	0	90	0	0	10
ID	-12	4	-2.9	0	33	60	0	8

AR	-11	10	-1.1	5	65	17	9	4
WI	-10	5	-2.0	0	54	0	0	46
NM	-9	5	-1.8	90	10	0	0	0
IA	-8	7	-1.2	11	88	0	1	0
KY	-8	8	-1.0	81	17	0	2	0

OK	-7	7	-1.0	0	100	0	0	0
MD	-4	10	-0.4	100	0	0	0	0
NV	-4	5	-0.9	100	0	0	0	0
WY	-4	3	-1.3	2	76	14	3	5
ME	-3	4	-0.7	0	67	0	0	33

DC	0	3	-0.1	50	50	0	0	0
MT	0	3	0.0	0	81	13	0	6
VA	3	13	0.3	33	22	16	27	1
SD	5	3	1.6	0	1	0	0	99
HI	5	4	1.2	50	50	0	0	0

OR	6	7	0.8	0	18	0	0	82
ND	7	3	2.4	7	90	0	0	3
KS	14	6	2.4	37	60	0	0	3
TN	17	11	1.5	75	10	11	5	0
TX	47	34	1.4	45	45	5	3	2

CA	86	55	1.6	29	66	4	0	0

[Melissa G]

2. Kickin for TIA's great research!

[TruthIsAll]

3. Data Table: Deviations and Machine Problems

Reg = registered voters (in millions)

MchProb = machine problems reported per million registered
voters. This is a relative measure for state comparisons.

Prob = probability Bush's vote tally would exceed 3.0% MOE. 
Note that the 3.0% MOE is a very conservative estimate.
For example, the calculated MOE for FL = 1.84%, based on the
2816 polling sample size.

State	Exit	Kerry	Shift	Prob	>MOE	Favor	Prob	Reg	MchProb
DE	58.50	53.54	-4.96	0.10%	1.96	Bush	0	0.571	0
NH	55.40	50.51	-4.89	0.10%	1.89	Bush	0	0.935	0
VT	65.00	60.20	-4.80	0.10%	1.80	Bush	0	0.468	0
SC	46.00	41.41	-4.59	0.10%	1.59	Bush	28	3.027	9.25
NE	36.75	32.32	-4.43	0.20%	1.43	Bush	0	1.225	0

AK	40.50	36.08	-4.42	0.20%	1.42	Bush	0	0.420	0
NC	48.00	44.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	32	5.962	5.37
AL	41.00	37.00	-4.00	0.40%	1.00	Bush	15	3.306	4.54
NY	63.00	59.18	-3.82	0.60%	0.82	Bush	179	12.756	14.03
CT	58.50	55.10	-3.40	1.30%	0.40	Bush	0	2.377	0

RI	64.00	60.61	-3.39	1.30%	0.39	Bush	1	0.735	1.36
MA	66.00	62.63	-3.37	1.40%	0.37	Bush	8	4.558	1.76
PA	54.35	51.00	-3.35	1.40%	0.35	Bush	251	9.138	27.47
MS	43.25	40.00	-3.25	1.70%	0.25	Bush	8	2.079	3.85
OH	52.10	49.00	-3.10	2.10%	0.10	Bush	240	8.358	28.72

FL	50.50	47.47	-3.03	2.40%	0.03	Bush	312	11.405	27.36
MN	54.50	51.52	-2.98	2.60%	-0.02	Bush	4	3.554	1.13
UT	30.50	27.55	-2.95	2.70%	-0.05	Bush	1	1.503	0.67
ID	33.50	30.61	-2.89	3.00%	-0.11	Bush	0	0.948	0
AZ	47.00	44.44	-2.56	4.70%	-0.44	Bush	36	1.226	29.36

KS	35.00	37.37	2.37	94.00%	-0.63	Kerry	2	1.939	1.03
ND	34.00	36.36	2.36	93.90%	-0.64	Kerry	0	0.472	0
LA	44.50	42.42	-2.08	8.80%	-0.92	Bush	130	1.246	104.31
IL	57.00	55.00	-2.00	9.60%	-1.00	Bush	84	8.592	9.78
WI	52.50	50.51	-1.99	9.60%	-1.01	Bush	25	3.929	6.36

WV	45.25	43.43	-1.82	11.80%	-1.18	Bush	2	1.398	1.43
NM	51.30	49.49	-1.81	11.90%	-1.19	Bush	53	1.256	42.19
SD	37.75	39.39	1.64	85.90%	-1.36	Kerry	0	0.555	0
CO	49.10	47.47	-1.63	14.40%	-1.37	Bush	43	3.168	13.57
IN	41.00	39.39	-1.61	14.70%	-1.39	Bush	8	4.471	1.79

GA	43.00	41.41	-1.59	15.00%	-1.41	Bush	50	0.851	58.78
CA	54.00	55.56	1.56	84.50%	-1.44	Kerry	104	21.605	4.81
MO	47.50	46.00	-1.50	16.40%	-1.50	Bush	6	4.123	1.46
TN	41.50	43.00	1.50	83.60%	-1.50	Kerry	6	4.281	1.4
NJ	55.00	53.54	-1.46	16.90%	-1.54	Bush	54	5.719	9.44

WA	54.95	53.54	-1.41	17.80%	-1.59	Bush	7	4.167	1.68
TX	37.00	38.38	1.38	81.70%	-1.62	Kerry	75	13.717	5.47
WY	30.90	29.59	-1.31	19.60%	-1.69	Bush	1	0.362	2.76
HI	53.30	54.55	1.25	79.20%	-1.75	Kerry	2	0.851	2.35
IA	50.65	49.49	-1.16	22.50%	-1.84	Bush	0	2.156	0

AR	46.60	45.45	-1.15	22.70%	-1.85	Bush	3	1.957	1.53
OK	35.00	34.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	6	2.505	2.4
KY	41.00	40.00	-1.00	25.70%	-2.00	Bush	2	3.071	0.65
MI	52.50	51.52	-0.98	26.00%	-2.02	Bush	71	7.177	9.89
NV	49.35	48.48	-0.87	28.60%	-2.13	Bush	4	1.433	2.79

OR	51.20	52.00	0.80	69.90%	-2.20	Kerry	0	2.495	0
ME	54.75	54.08	-0.67	33.10%	-2.33	Bush	1	0.983	1.02
MD	57.00	56.57	-0.43	38.80%	-2.57	Bush	9	3.719	2.42
VA	45.20	45.45	0.25	56.60%	-2.75	Kerry	34	5.216	6.52
DC	91.00	90.91	-0.09	47.60%	-2.91	Bush	20	0.416	48.13

MT	39.75	39.80	0.05	51.20%	-2.95	Kerry	2	0.679	2.95

Avg	47.89	22.64	-0.75	-0.25	-0.75	Total	1,919	189	10.15

[TruthIsAll]

5. AREA GRAPH OF MACHINE TYPE VS. RED SHIFT

[berniew1]

4. Strong evidence of fraud patterns found in Touchscreens in N.M. & Ohio

And strong evidence Kerry won New Mexico.
See current thread on New Mexico optical scans and other N.M. thread
and current Touchscreen thread; and the following which have lots of evidence:
http://www.helpamericarecount.org/NewMexicoData/NewMexicoGeneralElection.pdf

[berniew1]

6. Links documenting patern of vote machine fraud & Kerry won more states

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=176532&mesg_id=176532

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x177375

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=176637&mesg_id=176637

[zimba]

7. I dont know if this has been included but add

Indiana. This is from WISH TV

http://www.wishtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=2557466

November 12, 2004
Computer Glitch Found in Franklin County Ballot-Counting

(Brookville) - A recount prompted by a computer glitch in Franklin County's voting machines has given a Democrat enough votes to bump a Republican from victory in a county council race.

The glitch in the Fidlar Election Company optical vote-scanning system had recorded straight-Democratic Party votes for Libertarians.

When the votes were recounted by hand last night, Democrat Carroll Lanning leaped from fifth to third in the three-seat council race and Republican Roy Hall fell to fifth.

Fidlar confirmed the glitch, but calls it an isolated incident. But the company is also checking the programming of its equipment in nine other Indiana counties.

Besides Franklin, those counties are: Benton, Elkhart, Fulton, LaGrange, Newton, Ripley, Scott, Steuben, Switzerland.

[TruthIsAll]

8. This deserves it's own thread.

tia