|
Edited on Fri Oct-15-04 02:12 AM by AndyTiedye
> many of the undecided are leaning to Kerry.
That is good news. Where did you read this?
> They're Republicans who are thinking about voting for Kerry but
> can't get themselves to tell the pollster. And Independents who do
> not like Bush, are also leaning to Kerry, otherwise they would be in
> Bush's column.
How does one get that kind of information about the undecided
voters in this race?
Some of the undecideds are those who are caught between the
obvious malfeasance and incompetence of the regime, and edicts
emanating from their church forbidding them from voting for Kerry.
Those are the undecided voters that we WANT to stay home, because
if they do make it to the polls, their religion will usually trump
everything else. These could be a significant proportion of the
undecided voters in some states -- we hear about such people all
the time. Is there any way to find out how many undecided voters
are in this category?
> Kerry will pick them up as a result of the debates.
That is the boost I expect to see over the next few days, as
yesterday's debate is reflected in the polls. Kerry did very well.
Those who decide on the basis of the final debate have done so
by now, or will do so within a day or two.
> If Bush is at 47%, it's his ceiling and Kerry's floor. Kerry can only go up.
Saturation advertising, faux news, and attackumentaries spewing
lies about Kerry on every network will take its toll. It always does.
No incumbent in history has had such shamelessly (and shamefully)
uncritical support from the media.
We're heading for the grand finale, when they pull out all the stops.
The Swift Boat Liars are back, with a big free gift of airtime
from Sinclair, plus another infusion of cash from somewhere,
and the usual amplification from the echo chamber.:grr:
It is unlikely that they will get as big a boost from it as they did before,
but they are sure to get something.
And there's sure to be an "October Surprise".:scared:
> Bush is dropping like a stone in job approval. CBS has him at 43%.
> What does that tell you?
That he sucked horribly in the debates.
That a lot of people who don't approve of him are going to vote
for him anyway, if these polls mean anything, since his approval
rating ALWAYS has run way below his vote-for numbers.
> The Incumbent Rule says that Kerry, the challenger, will win the
> undecided vote, based on statistical evidence.
Presumably he already has won over quite a few undecided voters.
He has likely won over a few more in the final debate. After this,
how can he reach any more voters? What could persuade them?
It is likely that many undecided voters have been turned off
by what is likely the most negative campaign in our history.
> Google the Incumbent Rule
I did. The principle makes sense. What it doesn't say is how
many of the undecided voters actually vote. One would expect
those who feel strongly one way or the other will turn out in far
greater numbers than those who have difficulty making up their
minds who to vote for.
In the articles I found, they suggested that those undecided
voters who did vote went mostly for the challenger about 4/5
of the time.
It wasn't clear how long before election day the undecided
voters were polled. The number of undecided voters
generally shrinks as Election Day approaches.
What would be good to see is a figure on what percentage of
the undecided vote we need to win the election. From your
figures, it would appear to be well under 50%.
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
