Instead of: "It's going to be like Iran in '79!" How about, "It could be like Indonesia after 1998"?

[Turborama]

A lot of people are getting nervous that what's happening in Egypt and other Arab countries could result in an hard-line Islamic takeover akin to what happened in Iran at the end of the 1970s.

However, that was over 30 years ago, in a totally different information age (the exiled Ayatollah was mailing audio tapes from France to Mosques in Iran, for example) and took a year in total.

Just under 20 years later in 1998 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesian_Revolution_of_1998">a revolution happened in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim majority country, and a transition from dictatorship to democracy began (known as the "Reformasi" in Indonesian). It was a revolution which overthrew a dictator who (similarly to Mubarak) had been in place for 30 years.

13 years later in Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria things are moving a lot faster due to the evolution of communication technology.

Things aren't perfect by any means in modern day Indonesia (unfortunately corruption is still rife and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Indonesia">the politics do have a mild patriarchal edge), but it is absolutely nothing like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Iran">modern day theocratic Iran.

I hope we are witnessing a "Reformasi" style transition in North Africa, and not Iranian Revolution part deux.

Edit 1, to add a couple more embedded links for reference.

Edit 2, to add the banner links below which take you to Al Jazeera English's excellent and regularly updated special coverage of what's going on in Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria.

Edit 3, to add this special documentary from Al Jazeera English that's just gone online: http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/general/2008/12/200812319221110170.html">A Nation in Waiting

And http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x547906">this very interesting discussion with 3 young Egyptians I added to the videos forum yesterday.

Egypt:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/anger-in-egypt/">

Tunisia:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/tunisia/">

Algeria:
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/algeria/">