I suppose it depends on how a Pres. Kerry would have acted while in office. If he spoke out against the Bush tax cuts and tried to save the economy before it collapsed he might have retained office. If he did nothing and just let everything fall apart the way Shrub did then he would have been out and we might have a President Jeb Bush today.
Remember Katrina wasn't until 2005 so not all Bush's failures were in motion by 2004.
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