Reply #46: She can win the primary, she will not win the general, it's a statistical impossibility.

[Amimnoch]

Sarah Palin is a 1980's throwback, and has all of the appeal of a "valley girl"

Many replies use Bush as an example of how she could win. They may be from the same orchard, but they are 2 completely different kinds of fruit.

Sarah is an anti-establishment/anti-government looney. She's the type that would bring us back to the industrial age of corporatism. As such, she will not have the support of the beltway establishment for her own party. No candidate in the last 50 years has obtained the presidency without that support.

While she has high ratings in rural, and especially southern rural areas, she won't be able to swing the electorate when so many of the deciding moderate/swing vote considers her totally unqualified to be president. Those are the ones who actually decide the presidency, not liberals, not progressives, and not conservatives. She has alway had extremely low numbers with that voting bloc.

If she wins the primary for the pukes, she will polarize our own base like no other current candidate running could. Many who have the "I won't vote for Obama because _____ "mentality will swallow their pride, and issues of choice to support and vote against her.

She couldn't handle and quit the governorship of Alaska, one of the smallest populated states in the country. That alone will destroy her chances of winning a large chunk of the swing voting bloc.

She will never carry minorities, and her anti-immigrant position will polarize those voting bloc's against her, and bring in much larger voting numbers than that of those who will support her position on that issue.

It's possible she could win the primary for the pukes, but that's it. Even that is unlikely considering how the primary process works. New Hampshire is the opening, and she will perform horribly there in the polls. It is possible she'll carry Iowa, but even if she does, it's one of the discarded states due to low electoriate numbers, She'll likely never take Michigan, and Florida will also be a hard to win for her. If she doesn't take New Hampshire, Michigan, or Florida, she'll pretty much be out of the race based on Republican primary history. Florida's really her only wildcard chance.