CBO Projections: 1/3 of USA Opts-Out. Saints win Super Bowl. Splitsville for Brad and Angelina.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The CBO, or any other outfit making projections about dynamics with a million moving parts, has to make assumptions. Fair enough.

And the CBO can make assumptions about rational or semi-rational economic activity... "what percentage of people will chose to pay $20 extra for benefit Z?"

But the CBO has no basis I know of for projecting that states representing one third of the US population will opt-out of the Senate plan.

Projecting the purely political and irrational actions of wing-nuts in state legislatures is real flip-a-coin, Ouija board, "magic eight-ball" stuff.

Seems like an ideal case for running a series of projections at 0%, 10%, 20% etc., rather than predicting a particular opt-out result. Perhaps that is too much work? Takes too long? I don't know.

I doubt that even 5% of the population would ever be opted out so, in my view of things, the CBO is arbitrarily scoring the Senate bill as less effective than it would be based on political prognostication.

CBO Says Higher Premiums Under Senate Public Option, 'Opt-Out' Clause Would Impact One-Third Of Consumers

The CBO has posted its first analysis of the Senate's health care bill, which you can access
here.

As advertised, the bill reduces the deficit considerably in both the near- and long-term, while expanding coverage to 94 percent of Americans. By 2019, 25 million people would be buying insurance through a health insurance exchange.

However, it's not all roses. For instance, based on an assessment of the political popularity of the public option, the CBO has concluded that enough states will "opt out" to prevent a full third of consumers from purchasing government insurance.

"CBO's analysis took into account the probability that some states would opt not to allow the public plan to be offered to their residents. Rather than trying to judge which states might opt out, CBO applied a probability recognizing that public opinion is divided regarding the desirability of a public plan and that some states might have difficulty enacting legislation to opt out. Overall, CBO's assessment was that about two-thirds of the population would be expected to have a public plan available in their state."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/cbo-says-higher-premiums-under-senate-public-option.php?ref=fpblg