Reply #20: It is like this

[quaker bill]

The rough minimum any, even the most lame Dem candidate will pull in a general election is around 35 percent. In a typical two person, two party race, getting only 40 percent is a rout. When it comes to november, Meek should be able to pull something in the range of 40 perent. This leaves 60 percent to divide up between the other two. As long as they split the vote more or less evenly, Meek is your next Senator. If Crist or Rubio collapses then one or the other has a chance of victory. My read has them slicing up roughly 62 percent of the pie. If one drops near 20 the other becomes Senator, if both hang near 30, both lose.

Since they are both fighting over the dividing line in the same part of the pie, the campaign will get quite negative and nasty and has the distinct chance of driving down R turn out.

Meek's chances are very under-rated at this point. I think he has a far better than 50:50 shot at pulling this off.