Reply #8: Just the facts

[SchoolBoy]

"Please tell me you are not using past performance for renewables to predict the *capability* of renewable energy in the future."

No, I'm using the current share of fossil fuel + nuclear to demonstrate the challenge to replace them with renewables. You cut and pasted a lot, but you didn't say what the practical capacity of renewables is.

I only found a DOE report (not technical) that stated a goal for 20% for wind. The basis for that goal was that GW Bush said it in a speech when President. Now they are trying to figure out how to do it.

http://www.nrel.gov/wind/pdfs/41579.pdf

Solar doesn't work at night, and solar doesn't work well when cloudy or dirty. Solar takes up lots of space if you are using it to replace fossil fuel or nuclear. I was just looking and I couldn't find anybody who would do the math. I could do the calculations (30% efficiency, 5 kWh/m2/day, 10% of US energy demand), but I'm not an expert and I can't judge the reasonableness of the result.

But it does seem that nobody out there is doing the math and the natural question is: Why not?