Reply #36: It may be just the math.

[ovidsen]

BlooInBloo makes a points in some otherwise obtuse posts above. Forecasting today has a lot to do with mathematics (and the sheer volume and speed with which they can be processed by computers). Meteorologists these days depend more and more on these number crunchers, but they still pay attention to their gut. And there's also the unavoidable fact with so many variables being thrown into the mix (and more added all the time), the more there is a possibility of errors. The more precise forecasters try to be, the biger is the room for error.

I'm not sure that global change is making forecasts more prone to error, but I sure wouldn't rule it out. It may be years before we know for certain.

Just my 2 cents worth!