Specter's departure hints at a larger political realignment.

[Pab Sungenis]

For those who know the history of the two major political parties currently operating in our country, the defection of Arlen Specter to the Democrats is just one of the many signs that within the next twelve years, or as few as eight, we're probably going to see a huge re-alignment of parties here in the U.S., which could see the death of not just one of the parties, but the permanent division of the other as well.

The Democratic Party can trace its history all the way back to 1796, when Jefferson's loose confederation of anti-Federalist forces came together as the Democratic-Republican party, but the party we're members of today is very different from Jefferson's. I'm not even talking about ideological shifts like the Democrats went through in 1948, 1968, and countless other times. In fact, the Democratic Party broke into two separate factions on two different occasions. The first of which created the Whigs, and the second of which helped create the Republican Party.

In 1820, the Federalist Party -- the party of Washington and Adams -- finally disintegrated during the "Era Of Good Feelings" created by the Presidency of James Monroe. Before that, the Federalists had been restricted to being essentially a regional party dominating in New England and more conservative parts of the Northeast. (In fact, the last Federalist elected official would be a Governor of Delaware in the mid 1820's, after the national party was long gone.) Since nature abhors a vacuum, and the Democratic-Republicans were too broad and diverse a party to survive as the sole political party in the country, the Democratic-Republicans split into two factions, one following Andrew Jackson and John Calhoun as the "Democrats" and the other following John Q. Adams and Henry Clay as the "National Republicans," eventually to become the "Whig" party.

In the late 1850's, as the debate over slavery reached the boiling point, the Whig party (whose philosophy was pretty much a desire to please everyone) fell apart, unable to reconcile its pro-slavery and anti-slavery factions. The anti-slavery Whigs joined with the abolitionis wing of the Democrats to form a new party, the "Republican" party. The pro-slavery Whigs floundered and died out with the Civil War, with southern Whigs uniting behind the Democrats during and after Reconstruction.

Now, with the overwhelming Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008, the Republicans are being pushed further and further into the role of a regional party with waning power. Losing Arlen Specter to the Democrats today shows just how tenuous the remaining Republican coalition actually is, especially in areas that helped put Barack Obama in the White House. It's not unreasonable to say that the Republican party, as we know it, could cease to exist within eight years.

The question is what happens then? Will the Republicans rebuild as they did in the 1940's and 1950's with Wendell Willkie and Dwight Eisenhower, acknowledging and adopting the new Democratic-built status quo but arguing that they can do it better? Or will they stay on the same self-destructive course they're on today? If they do, then all bets are off.

If the Republicans do self-destruct, however, it is not necessarily a good thing for the Democrats. Remember that our own coalition is also very tenuous (the fact that we're cheering the aisle-crossing of a Republican Senator who actually OPPOSES the most important parts of the Democratic agenda should make that clear). And just as much as in 1824, political nature still abhors a vacuum. If the Republicans disappear, then the different factions within the Democratic party will see their lines become even clearer and more sharply defined. Senators like Specter, Evan Bayh, and Bill Nelson could join with the more "moderate" elements from the disintegrated Republicans and either form a new party or completely take over the Democrats, which would lead to the Progressive caucus leaving and forming a party of their own, or joining with one of the current left-leaning parties like the Greens.

The next several years will be key. Will the Obama Administration be a second "Era of Good Feelings?" Or will it prove to be an unfulfilled dream like the Kennedy and Johnson administrations were? Will the Republicans embrace the more popular Democratic policy proposals (like Health Care and a fairer tax structure)? Or will they re-entrench and stick to their own failed policies? If the former, then we can look for a more moderate Republican party -- like the one from the 40's and 50's -- posing a real threat to the Democrats electorally but not ideologically. If the latter, it's likely that neither of the two parties, as we currently recognize them, will be on the national ballot come 2020.