Reply #32: Do the math, somethings wrong

[zipplewrath]

Suppose he is starting with $200 and "making" $40,000 in a month. 30 days, that's roughly $1300 per day on a stake of $200. That's a return of over 600%, day after day, month after month. Even if he is counting cards and doing a few other marginally legal things, he'd be doing well to play at about 52%.

We can suppose he's only making 4 grand a month. Then we are talking about only winning 130 bucks per day with a $200 stake. That'd make a tad more sense, only a tad more but he is suggesting he's winning about 60%. If he's doing anything, he's getting supremely lucky. He's limiting his down side and currently is making one or two smart bets a week that cover for an awful lot of break even/loss days. But the gamblers fallicy kicks in sooner or later. The house has "unlimited" deep pockets, and can sustain their losses for much longer than your son. Furthermore, they can "limit" his winnings (max bets etc). It won't take many "bad" days to burn through $4000 a month.


All in all I think I'd go with him some day and see what's up.