Reply #10: Hubby and I have a bet that the DJIA 7800 will/will not be broken

[mnhtnbb]

to the downside by Jan. 1. He's betting it will; I'm betting it won't.

His bet is looking better after the 10% drop from yesterday and today.


We were up 20% off 7800--but a 10% decline in 2 days--yikes!


When the market moves up, it can really take off. I've read lots of analysis
that it doesn't pay to try to time the market; if you miss the turn, you miss
a lot of the gain.

Although a lot of money has gone poof in the last couple of months, there is a lot of money
on the sidelines. The market anticipates economic conditions; it has gone down and we still
don't have confirmation of a recession (takes 2 quarters of data); it will turn up--on average--
6 months before we know we're out of a recession.

So, you pay your money and take your chances. I have already been buying in line with
the contrarian position that when others are selling it's time to buy, and when others are buying, it's time to sell. Time will tell whether I was too early.