Reply #209: 1789 didn't have ELECTION FRAUD favoring the RIGHT-WING almost 100% (like today). Check it out:

[tiptoe]

Exit Polls vs Vote-Counts:  Vote-margin shifts favor the GOP in the vote-count 98.5% when a ±3% MoE is exceeded (66 of 238)

From Proving Election Fraud (2010), pp 81-91:

Exit polls are used to collect demographic data about voters and to find out why they voted as they did. Since actual votes are cast anonymously, polling is the only way of collecting this information. Exit polls have historically and throughout the world been used as a check against and rough indicator of the degree of election fraud.

The 2004 exit poll report was released on Jan 19, 2005. It showed that Kerry won the unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate by 52–47% and the [preliminary] National Exit Poll by 51–48%, before they were forced to match the recorded vote, won by Bush 50.7%–48.3%. The pollsters concluded that the 7% discrepancy (WPE) was due to the Kerry voters responding at a higher rate than Bush voters to be interviewed. It was dubbed the "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis (rBr). The pollster's Final National Exit Poll, which indicated that returning Bush voters outnumbered returning Gore voters by more than 7 million, refuted the theory. Not only that, there were more returning voters than were alive in 2004.

It is important to keep in mind that the [adjusted] Final National Exit Poll (NEP) is always 'forced to match' the official recorded vote count.
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An analysis of [unadjusted] State Exit Poll discrepancies for the 1988-2004 elections yields an interesting pattern. The data is from Edison Media Research/ Mitofsky International: "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" (January 19, 2005).

E-M provided unadjusted exit poll data for 238 of 255 state presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. They define "Within Precinct Error (WPE)" as the difference between the unadjusted exit poll share margin and the recorded vote-count share margin. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong. But millions of votes are un-counted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004). Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat.
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Unadjusted exit poll data has not been released for 2008. Is it because the data would confirm what the 1988-2004 exit polls indicate?  In every election, the Democrats do much better than the official recorded vote indicates. As always, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote-count. A True Vote Model (see below) indicates that Obama won by over 22 million votes.

1988-2004 ±3% MoE exceeded in 66 of 238 State Exit Polls  (65 favoring the Republican, 1 the Democrat)