Reply #9: Premature?

[robdogbucky]

and so are all forecasts of rose petals and candy premature.

Sid, I came back from a fishing trip on Sunday night and when I turned on the news, the first report took about 5 minutes and was all dedicated to the increased scope of the spill. As I mentioned earlier, they interviewed local oceanographers that were monitoring this situation. One of them was quoted as saying if the current never-been tried methods did not work, this could gush enough to exceed the amounts of the Exxon Valdez. Now, which of those experts it was I cannot say and I don't think that news broadcast is still accessible, but I did find these nuggets that variously assert that if these tactics don't stem the flow, then it could go for months which would open the door to its exceeding Valdez. I will continue to search for which expert asserted it, but I think you can agree that the conversation has now turned to that possibility.

These following nuggets don't attribute to any one expert for your satisfaction, but just like the rosy pictures so far proven wrong every step of the way, there is nothing to say what will be the ultimate tally when/if they can shut this leak down. They already cite that if it were not for a 'kink' in one of the undersea arteries, it would already be much worse. What happens if that kink explodes? You are experienced in this field according to your stated history, why do you insist on this damage control when we don't know the extent of it yet? The meme of minimal damage, industry solutions to the rescue, etc., remind eerily of "there is no civil war," or "there is no recession," type of damage control. All too familiar in our modern newspeak reality.

It may take them a month to get the new gizmos in place, in an environment they have never been deployed before. A month is all one estimate gives for this to exceed EV. Others, like you yesteday, assert that it would take 8 months at its present rate. Well, what if that rate increases?


"…The oil will do much less damage at sea than it would if it hits the shore, said Cynthia Sarthou, executive director of the Gulf Restoration Network.

"If it gets landward, it could be a disaster in the making," Sarthou said.
Doug Helton, incident operations coordinator for the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's office of response and restoration, said the spill is not expected to come onshore in the next three to four days. "But if the winds were to change, it could come ashore more rapidly," he said.

At the worst-case figure of 336,000 gallons a day, it would take more than a month for the amount of crude oil spilled to equal the 11 million gallons spilled from the Exxon Valdez in Alaska's Prince William Sound..."

http://www.newser.com/article/d9f8iubo0/burning-oil-rig-sinks-in-gulf-of-mexico-setting-stage-for-big-spill-11-workers-still-missing.html



"...Crews used robot submarines to activate valves in hopes of stopping the leaks, but they may not know until Tuesday if that strategy will work. BP also mobilized two rigs to drill a relief well if needed. Such a well could help redirect the oil, though it could also take weeks to complete, especially at that depth.

BP plans to collect leaking oil on the ocean bottom by lowering a large dome to capture the oil and then pumping it through pipes and hoses into a vessel on the surface, said Doug Suttles, chief operating officer of BP Exploration and Production.

It could take up to a month to get the equipment in place..."

http://www.newser.com/article/d9fb1nu80/oil-leaking-from-sunken-rig-spreads-raising-fear-of-gulf-coast-environmental-disaster.html


And this the most positive spin I have read put on the potential scope of the spill:


Oil spill disaster fears come true

An oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was one of the greatest fears When the Deepwater Horizon exploded and sank. The New York Times reports that the well is leaking its liquid cash today from the “riser.” The riser is a 5,000-foot-long pipe extending from the wellhead on the ocean bottom that was connected to the drilling platform. Now detached, the riser is kinked like a garden hose. The leaks are at the sea floor, and officials believe the kinks are preventing an even worse gusher of oil from escaping. Before the platform sank, a geyser of oil and gas shot from the riser to create a giant plume of flame and black smoke.

Oil spill cleanup

To contain the oil spill, the Coast Guard aims to have robotic subs activate a 450-ton valve at the wellhead 5,000 feet deep that could possible seal the well. However, it’s possible that this valve, which was designed to prevent sudden pressure releases that led to the explosion that sunk the platform may not work. As a contingency, BP has dispatched two rigs to the area that could drill relief wells. Officials estimated that this strategy, drilling down to the cavity of oil and gas and pumping it full of mud and concrete, could take two months.

At this rate, The New York times said, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, at a rate of 42,000 gallons of oil a day, would have to continue for 262 days to match the 11-million-gallon spill in Alaska’s Prince William Sound from the Exxon Valdez in 1989, the worst oil spill in United States history.

http://personalmoneystore.com/moneyblog/2010/04/26/oil-spill-gulf-of-mexico/


That looks about like 8 months, no? And those goalposts keep moving.




"Just trying to do my jigsaw puzzle, before it rains any more"

Jagger/Richards (never performed live)