UK Election: For the 1st time in 104 years the Liberal Democrats are leading Labour & Conservatives

[Turborama]

Something exciting seems to be happening for Liberals in Britain's election campaign.

These reports cite polls that put the Liberal Democrats in front of the two main parties. Ironically these two polls are from Britain's most far right tabloids the Mail and the Sun:

BPIX put Lib Dems in the lead

Posted on April 17th, 2010 by Anthony Wells

There is a BPIX poll in tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday which has topline figures of CON 31%(-7), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 32%(+12). That’s the biggest drop for Conservatives so far, and the biggest surge for the Lib Dems – and it puts the Liberal Democrats up in first place. The Lib Dems were in equal first place in a poll back in 2003, but I think you need to go back to around 1982 to find polls with them (or their predecessor parties) consistently in first place (Update – Tom in the comments has flagged up one poll from 1985 that had the Alliance ahead)

As with ComRes today and YouGov yesterday, all three parties are within 4 or 5 points of each other, so realistically if the polls remain like this it shouldn’t be a surprise to see polls with any of the three parties in the lead.

There is also a OnePoll survey in the People, that shows CON 27%, LAB 23%, LDEM 33%. I have still not confirmed whether these polls have any proper attempt at sampling or political weighting, and would treat it with great scepticism.

From: http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

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YouGov show Liberal Democrats ahead

Posted on April 18th, 2010 by Anthony Wells

Tonight’s YouGov poll shows the Lib Dem boost continuing. The topline figures are CON 32%(-1), LAB 26%(-3), LDEM 33%(+4), so following on from BPIX yesterday we now have YouGov putting the Lib Dems in the lead. The 32% is the lowest the Conservatives have been with YouGov since the election-that-never-was in 2007, 26% is the lowest Labour have been since the Conservative party conference boost last year.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, so with the “Lib Dem breakthrough” dominating the media and the election narrative. It’s quite hard to guess what is going to happen next – on one hand the Lib Dems are likely to face a concerted attack from the other parties and hostile newspapers, on the other hand if they stay at this level there will be a snowballing effect of them being seen to be on a roll, the Lib Dem’s normal weaknesses of being seen as a wasted vote will be whittled away, and if the two main parties start focusing their fire upon the Lib Dems it may well backfire by making them seem negative and the Lib Dems as the real challenger.

From: http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/

The Sun, a Murdoch rag which is openly backing the Conservatives, are trying to spin their way out of it, of course. The headline says it all...

Warning as Libs win poll race

By TOM NEWTON DUNN, Political Editor

VOTERS last night rejected the Lib Dems' potty policies - despite the party taking a shock lead in the race to win the General Election.

A YouGov opinion poll for The Sun put support for Nick Clegg's party at a staggering 33 per cent.

It is the first time the former Liberals have been in the lead in a general election race for 104 years.

The Conservatives lag one point behind at 32 per cent, while Labour have tanked on just 26 per cent.

More: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/election2010/2937300/Lib-Dems-now-in-pole-position.html#ixzz0lVSE9dRw

Guess who's working as the Sun's pollster...

Faux newz & the GOP's very own Frank Luntz.

In a recent interview with David Frost on Al Jazeera English his prediction that the Liberal Democrats would only gain 4 points from 20% to 24/25% Labour 32/33% to 30% and Conservatives would go from down from 38% to 35% has obviously gone awry.

The interview can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-SUbVUQnqs

I can't believe that AJ English are employing him as a political CONtributor and I suspect Murdoch could be having words with him about his job performance after this.

The NYT has an interesting article on what's happening in Britain's election, in which a political analyst describes the Liberal Demcrats' surge as unprecedented...

From: Talk of a Surprise in British Elections

By STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: April 18, 2010

“We are in uncharted territory,” John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow, said in a telephone interview. “We have never had this kind of polling during an election campaign. There has never been this kind of surge to the Liberal Democrats.”

Full article: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/19/world/europe/19libdem.html?pagewanted=all