1994 Republican Rout Is Casting Shadow in 2010

[kentuck]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/12/us/politics/12elect.html?ref=todayspaper

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WASHINGTON — The year was 1994. Congressional Democrats were battered after a failed fight to pass a health care bill. It was the first midterm election for a new Democratic president, Bill Clinton. By overwhelming numbers, Americans thought the country was heading in the wrong direction, had unfavorable views of the president and Congress, and said it was time for new leadership in Washington.

That fall, Republicans swept to power, capturing 9 seats in the Senate and 52 in the House.

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“Obama has done the same kind of overreach that Clinton did back then with the tax increases and the crime bill,” said Joe Gaylord, the Gingrich adviser who directed the 1994 takeover strategy, and who is now advising Mr. Gingrich on a potential presidential run.

“I was just looking at some survey data this morning, and in every area now — from health care to education to balancing the budget to foreign policy — the Republicans have a lead over Democrats, policywise,” Mr. Gaylord said. “That makes it very much like 1994.”

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Moreover, the Republican Party has a different image than it did in 1994. At that time, Republicans had been out of control of Congress for long enough that they were able to present themselves as the party of change. They were viewed unfavorably by just 39 percent of Americans. By contrast, 57 percent said in February that they had an unfavorable view of Republicans in a New York Times/CBS News poll.

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Democrats also have fewer seats to defend. In 1994, Democrats had 28 retirements, putting many districts on the table that otherwise would have been safe. Last week, Representative Bart Stupak of Michigan announced that he would not seek re-election, pushing the number of Democrats who are retiring this year to 20, equal to the number of Republicans who are retiring. The number is still relatively low, though not as low as Democrats would have liked.

Perhaps more significant, in 1994 Democrats headed into the fall campaign after passing a crime bill that included a ban on assault weapons. The bill led to a backlash among independent voters, particularly in the South, which many Democrats argue was as much a factor in Democratic setbacks as the health care debacle.

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