Why Democrats Are Not Scared of November 2010 Election

[Ian David]

By JAY NEWTON-SMALL / WASHINGTON Jay Newton-small / Washington – Mon Apr 5, 4:45 pm ET

Democrats had hoped that passing health care reform would give them a much-needed bump in the polls ahead of this year's difficult midterm election; instead, their ratings have dipped, renewing worries about a political debacle in November. The worst-case scenario recalls the ghosts of 1994, when Newt Gingrich's Republicans took control of the House following the failure of the Clinton Administration's attempt at health care reform.

There are certainly parallels. In 1994, Bill Clinton's favorability poll numbers were at 51%, about where Obama's are now. And the Dems were polarized by a series of tough (and strikingly familiar) issues: a carbon tax, gays in the military and health care. But will history repeat itself, with the party in power bearing the brunt of a wave of discontent? Here are five reasons the 2010 midterm scenario is different, and perhaps less dire for the Democrats, than 1994's.

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2. Fundraising

Most polls may put the GOP ahead in voter enthusiasm, but that excitement has yet to translate into campaign cash. By the end of February, the National Republican Campaign Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the House, had slightly more than $6 million in the bank, compared with the nearly $20 million held by its Democratic counterpart. The Republican committee in the Senate that finances campaigns had $12.9 million on hand, compared with $14.3 million available to Senate Democrats. And the Republican National Committee trailed the Democratic National Committee, $9.5 million to $10.7 million. The war-chest gap in the House is the most notable, because that chamber is the one Republicans have the highest hopes of recapturing.

3. Tea Parties

While a lot of money is going directly to Republican candidates, they're not always the candidates the GOP would prefer to field. In Kentucky, for example, insurgent Tea Party darling Rand Paul has raked in nearly $2 million, outraising the establishment candidate, Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, by more than $100,000. In Florida, conservative insurgent Marco Rubio has raised more than $3.4 million and is leading Governor Charlie Crist, the presumptive Republican candidate, in the polls. To see the potential dangers of the Tea Party groundswell, the GOP leadership need look no further than the debacle in New York's 23rd district - where Democrats won a Republican safe seat after conservative activists put up a third candidate against Dede Scozzafava, a GOP candidate deemed too moderate by Tea Party types. (Watch a video about the Florida GOP.)

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20100405/us_time/08599197731300