Reply #1: The Long Term Moving Average prior to the Greenspan "boost"

[kurt_cagle]

would have placed the DJIA (what's commonly referred to as the DOW) at 7540 today. The market will likely have one more major swing south - I'm guessing it will test 5000 at one point, before settling back in at around 7200 around the end of the year, all other things being equal

Of course this assumes a linear growth trend, and there are some strong headwinds that the market is facing right now. Oil can spike (put things into perspective, oil is already 50% more expensive than it was at its lowest point only four months ago) and likely will. The stimulus package could inject a huge amount of liquidity directly into businesses, which could boost things, and inflation could re-emerge, and if it does, it will almost certainly be nasty (8%+ per annum). In percentage terms, I think that the market could easily fall another 20%, given the volatility of the market, before bottoming out. The question is how quickly people are willing to get back into the market.