Reply #50: In case others missed all this n/t

[sandnsea]

"The truth is that neither the Obama plan, nor the Clinton plan, guarantees 'universal coverage' for all Americans, although they both aspire to this goal. Let's look at the Clinton plan first. MIT economics professor Jonathan Gruber, one of Clinton's health care advisers, describes her plan as a 'universal coverage' plan, in contrast to the Obama plan, which he terms a 'universal access' plan. But he also acknowledges that the Clinton plan will not include everybody. 'Any system that does not have a single payer will not have 100 per cent coverage,' he told me, when I reached him after the Las Vegas debate. 'But you can come very close.' ... The system proposed by Clinton is more analagous to the government-subsidized private insurance system in the Netherlands, where roughly one and a half per cent of the population is estimated to fall through the cracks.'

'Robert Blendon, director of the Harvard Program on Public Opinion and Health and Social Policy, estimates Obama's plan would end up covering 5 percent to 10 percent fewer individuals than Clinton's. But that's assuming that it's possible for Clinton to require everyone to purchase insurance. Blendon suspects that it isn't. 'At the end of the day,' he tells FactCheck.org, 'it's not going to be everybody. We have no idea what the actual falloff would be.' ... Preliminary data from Massachusetts, which implemented a sweeping health insurance plan last year, is showing that many people would rather remain uninsured than purchase a stripped-down plan. 'People always say having some insurance is better than no insurance,' Blendon says. 'It turns out, in some of the focus groups in Massachusetts, people don't believe that.''

John Holohan, the author of a study conducted at the Urban Institute, a Washington-based think tank, that gamed out various different models for health care reform in Massachusetts several years ago, does not believe that either the Clinton or the Obama plan will eliminate the problem of the uninsured altogether. 'We would all be very happy if we got down to one and a half per cent,' he said.

Speech to the Group Health Association of America, February 15, 1994.

Dembner, Alice, "Health Plan May Exempt 20% of the Uninsured"

"There's good evidence," Mr. Kingsdale said, "whether it's buying auto insurance or wearing seat belts or motorcycle helmets, that mandates don't work 100 percent."

The state reports that 200,000+ additional people have acquired health insurance in Massachusetts in the last year. http://www.mahealthconnector.org. There are several different estimates of the number of uninsured individuals in Massachusetts in 2006 (prior to implementation of the mandate. The most commonly used estimate comes from researchers from the Urban Institute who concluded that the number of uninsured was around 500,000. The Census Bureau says there are 650,000 uninsured in Massachusetts. A different team of Urban Institute researchers estimated a number that was roughly 15 percent higher than the Census Bureau number.