Reply #55: Whh? Yes of course it does

[dmallind]

Insert ANY cabdidate of ANY party and 270 comes up as what you need to win for one thing - that's simple math nobody can argue with. As far as what they have "in the bag" we can only look at present ECV and direction of partisan support. Since Kerry got 252 ECV and the direction overall remains much more towards Democrats than against them, we have a smoewhat stable base for a comparable Dem candidate. I don't think any of the remotely viable Dem candidates are likely to lose many if any blue states barring wild events, so certainly for Clinton/Obama/Edwards/Dodd/Biden/Richardson we can maybe be very generous to Republicans and assume they MAY be able to swing maybe one of the smaller NE states and MN as long shots. I very much doubt again we'll see ANY blue-red switches, at least based on current standings. So essentially it comes down to which candidate can take EITHER OH or FL and we're done OR none of those and a couple of smaller states - say MO and VA for example - and we're done.

Strangely, and rarely, enough, the electoral map actually works in our favor for once. I don't care how energized anti-Hollary voters are. If they can't switch a blue state to red - and which one would it be? - then they need to hold pretty much ALL the red states - and I just don;t think they can do it in today's zeitgeist against any of the major Dem candidates.