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Failing banks, toxic bonds and mortgage laundering
Tuesday, Sept 17, 2007
The Triumph of Structured Finance
By Mike Whitney "The entire global financial structure is becoming uncontrollable in crucial ways that its nominal leaders never expected, and instability is its hallmark. The scope and operation of international financial markets, their “architecture”, as establishment experts describe it, has evolved haphazardly and its regulation is inefficient — indeed, almost nonexistent. Banks do not understand the chain of exposure and who owns what: senior financial regulators and bankers now admit this.” Gabriel Kolko “An Economy of Buccaneers and Fantacists"
“Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, is like a man who, after spending a lifetime playing with train sets, finally gets to drive the real thing - only to find it hurtling towards the edge of a cliff.” U.K. Observer
By now, you’ve probably seen the photos of the angry customers queued up outside of Northern Rock Bank waiting to withdraw their money.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6998507.stm The pictures are headline news in the UK but have been stuck on the back pages of US newspapers. The reason for this is obvious---the same Force 5 economic-hurricane that just touched ground in Great Britain is headed for America and gaining strength on the way.
This is what a good old fashioned bank run looks like---the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Great Depression. And, just like 1929, the bank owners are frantically trying to calm down their customers by reassuring them that their money is safe. But—human nature being what it is---people are not so easily pacified when they think their hard-earned savings are at risk. The bottom line is this: The people want their money---not excuses.
But Northern Rock doesn’t have their money and, surprisingly, it is not because the bank was dabbling in risky subprime loans. Rather, NR had unwisely adopted the model of “borrowing short to go long” in financing their mortgages just like many of the major banks in the US. In other words, they depended on wholesale financing of their mortgages from eager investors in the market, instead of the traditional method of maintaining sufficient capital to back up the loans on their books.
It seemed like a nifty idea at the time and most of the big banks in the US were doing the same thing. It was a great way to avoid bothersome reserve requirements and the loan origination fees were profitable as well. Northern Rock’s business soared. Now they carry a mortgage book totaling $200 billion dollars.
$200 billion! So why can’t they pay out a paltry $4 or $5 billion to their customers without a government bailout?
It’s because they don’t have the reserves---and, because the bank’s business model is hopelessly flawed and no longer viable. Their assets are illiquid and (presumably) “marked to model”---which means they have no discernible market value. They might as well have been “marked to fantasy”---it amounts to the same thing. Investors don’t want them. So Northern Rock is stuck with a $200 billion albatross that’s dragging them under.
A more powerful fiscal-tsunami is about to descend on the United States where many of the banks have been engaged in the same practices and are using the same business-model as Northern Rock. Investors are no longer buying CDOs, MBSs, or anything else related to real estate. No one wants them whether they’re subprime or not. That means that US banks will soon undergo the same type of economic gale that is battering the UK right now. The only difference is that the US economy is already listing from the downturn in housing and an increasingly-jittery stock market.
That’s why Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson rushed off to England yesterday to see if he could figure out a way to keep the contagion from spreading.
Good luck, Hank.
It would interesting to know if Paulson still believes that “This is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime”, or if he has adjusted his thinking as troubles in subprime, commercial paper, private equity, and credit continue to mount?
SECURITIZATION: Is it really just Mortgage laundering?For weeks we’ve been saying that the banks are in trouble and do not have the reserves to cover their losses. This notion was originally pooh-poohed by nearly everyone. But it’s becoming more and more apparent that it is true. We expect to see many bank failures in the months to come. Prepare yourself. The banking system is mired in fraud and chicanery. Now the schemes and swindles are unwinding and the bodies will soon be floating to the surface. <MORE>
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