"Hurricane Felix a possible catastrophe for Honduras"

[Bluebear]

Felix a possible catastrophe for Honduras

Given the nearly ideal conditions for intensification--low shear and plenty of high-heat content water--Felix is likely to be a Category 5 storm as it approaches Honduras Monday. If the center tracks parallel to the coast within about 100 miles of it, an extremely dangerous situation ensues for Honduras. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 passed along the north coast of Honduras in 1974 as a Category 2 hurricane, and dumped up to 24 inches of rain on the mountainous country. The resulting landslides and floods killed an estimated 8,000 people--the fourth deadliest Atlantic hurricane ever. The town of Choloma in northwestern Honduras suffered the most. A huge mudslide triggered by Fifi's rains plowed into the city at dusk on September 20, 1974. The mudslide then formed a dam that pent Fifi's raging flood waters. When the dam burst, flood waters ravaged the entire city. Half of Choloma's population--about 2,800 people--died in the catastrophe. Fifi also killed at least 200 people in neighboring Guatemala.

Felix will be stronger that Fifi was, but it will be the size of Felix that will be critical in determining if Fifi-like rains hit Honduras. As Fifi approached Honduras between September 17 and 18, 1974 (Figure 2), it grew in size. The increased size allowed Fifi to pull in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, which greatly enhanced the rainfall over Honduras. If Felix grows large enough to tap this Pacific source of moisture, prodigious rains capable of causing major loss of life will result. Currently, Felix is not large enough to tap the Pacific moisture source. Additionally, Felix is moving faster--17 mph, as opposed to Fifi's 11 mph. This won't give Felix as much time to pour torrential rains on the region. These factors may combine to prevent Felix from matching Fifi's deadly rainfall totals. However, once Felix moves clear of the South American coast, there is a good chance the storm will grow in size, due to the additional influx of moisture from the south. If this occurs, not only Honduras is at risk. The nations of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico will also be at high risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html