Reply #4: How can a 10 year away problem be defined as a "Crisis"?

[carolinalady]

Brecher's definition of crisis in ,,Toward a Theorie of International Crisis Behavior`` makes a difference between conceptual and operational terms.13.
Brecher's crisis definition in conceptual terms:
,,... a foreign policy crisis is a situational change in the external or internal environment which creates in the minds of the incumbent decision-makers of an international actor a perceived threat from the external environment to basic values to which a responsive decision is deemed necessary.``14
Brecher's crisis definition in operational terms:
,,... a foreign policy crisis is a breakpoint along the peace-war continuum of a state's relations with any other international actor(s). A crisis is a situation with four necessary and sufficient conditions, as these are perceived by the highest level decision-makers of the actor concerned:
a change in its external or internal environment, which generates
a threat to basic values, with a simultaneous or subsequent
high probability of involvement in military hostilities, and the awareness of
a finite time for their response to the external value threat.``15
This definition includes four essentials of a crisis definition:
surprise,
high probability of involvement in military hostilities,
a finite time for their response
a change of the situation is possible for the actors.