Sabato is one smart cookie.

[Perky]

from Larry Sabato this morning.

Democrats may also be playing into Republican hands. No, it's not the Beltway- and blog-based whining about the "lack of a coherent Democratic agenda"--the oft-wished-for Democratic version of the GOP's 1994 Contract with America. The Republican landslide of '94 had little to do with the Contract, popular myth to the contrary. Instead, the out-of-power GOP victory was a direct result of deep dissatisfaction with both President Clinton and the Democratic-controlled Congress. Should the Democrats score a big win this November, the mirror-image of '94 will explain it--unhappiness with Bush and the GOP Congress.

The Democrats' 2006 mistake, if it continues, will be the chorus calling for Bush's censure or impeachment, which has now reached the front pages of prominent newspapers and magazines. This left-wing fantasy has been stoked by many of the usual liberal suspects and bloggers, and also by Senator Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, who failed to consult with his colleagues and has been mainly shunned by them in the aftermath of his censure call. As intended by Feingold, the lefty blogosphere has rallied around the Senator's nascent presidential campaign, and the party's left wing may adopt Feingold as its new Howard Dean.

What is good for Feingold in '08 is poison for Democrats in '06, however. Republican leaders have welcomed the move, already using it to raise money. Mainly, though, censure and impeachment threats are being used to activate the Republican base. Somewhat disgruntled after President Bush's and Congress' missteps in the past year, the GOP base has been in danger of voting at a low rate, giving Democrats the turnout edge for the first time since 2000. But now, Republican leaders can reasonably say that if Democrats gain control of Congress, a serious effort at censure or impeachment will follow. The Democratic hierarchy has been smart enough to realize that the left is on the verge of creating a similar situation to 1998, when GOP efforts to impeach President Clinton produced an electoral backlash. Surprising Democratic triumphs replaced expected Republican congressional gains in Clinton's sixth-year election. How ironic it would be if Democrats in 2006 imitated the Republican goof of 1998, if the "sixth-year itch" turned out to be one that infected Democrats instead of Republicans!