Reply #15: Frankly I think that we have to look elsewhere...

[tocqueville]

This won't be a ground troop war...

it's going to be air strikes à la Kosovo, with NATO participation. Probably with attempts to destabilize the Mollahs through a RW gerilla war à la Contras...

Irani retaliation will be wreaking havoc in Iraq through the Shiites and doing as much damage as possible in the Hormuz strait + probably launching a pair of conventional missiles at Israel for propaganda purposes (as Saddam did). Increased terrorism in Lebanon and maybe EUrope is expected.

Remember that nobody likes the Iranis becauses they are Shias. Egypt and Saudi Arabia don't want to see a nuclear Iran. Besides Russia and China don't care about who wins, as long as they can buy oil.

Iran's strongest weapon is the oil price. The price will flame up at least $150 the barrel the day the first tanker is sunk. Add a couple of Katrina like hurricanes in the same region (the probability is high), then the US will start to negotiate...

if there is a Waterloo to be, it will be at the stock exchange, not round Teheran...