Reply #14: Must be the *Co meme of the day: Former Bremer advisor,...

[tiptoe]

Noah Feldman, also promotes a "dismal for Dems" gist, similar to Hannity's.

Talk of desperation, for sure, but aren't "they" the ones who are desperate? If current pre-election poll trends continue and prevail on election day, and anti-Constitution, anti-Bill-of-Rights, rubber-stamping, Neocon-a**-kissing-Republicans lose control of the House and/or Senate (and TIA demonstrates a 99% probability Dems will win 30+ House seats ASSUMING NO FRAUD...see below), then investigations by Dems -- with subpoena power -- will follow: Pre-war Intelligence Fraud, 9/11 Insurance Fraud+, Election Fraud, Plame-gate, etc...i.e. the Truth.

In answer to propagandists like Feldman and Hannity who promote "Even If Democrats Win in November, They're Out of Luck...No need for Dems to go to the polls" see: What's most important about winning the House? Pelosi: "Subpoena power"

On election day, Nov 2, 2004, Bush' 14-day Approval Rating stood at ~ 48%. TIA wrote then: http://organikrecords.com/corporatenewslies/beginner_v2.htm#rules">To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe....

Today, with the same pollsters showing * approval near 36%, and with corruption and sex scandals shaking the GOP, only more Election Fraud can sustain GOP's majorities.

=========
Channeling TIA (emphasis added):

"Oct. 15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the Senate" (posted Oct 16 elsewhere)
"Oct. 15 Polls show: Only FRAUD can stop the Democrats from winning the House" (posted Oct 16 elsewhere)


A Monte Carlo Forecast Simulation
(1000 election trials)

How many of the 58-contested GOP House seats can the Democrats expect to win, assuming a FRAUD-FREE election?
Corollary: How many elections must the GOP need to steal to maintain control?

This is an update to a prior analysis of 31 competitive GOP-held seats. The data base is bigger; it includes the polls for 58 seats. The Democrats need to capture 15 to gain control of the House.

In the 58 polls:
1) Democrats lead in 15 beyond the MoE
2) Democrats lead in 11 within the MoE
3) Dems TIE GOP in 5
4) GOP leads in 15 within the MoE
5) GOP leads in 12 beyond the MoE

The analysis ASSUMES ZERO FRAUD. It is based strictly on the latest poll shares, undecided voter allocation and margin of error. The model will be updated for new polling data and run again just prior to election day.

The goal of the simulation is to calculate a range of probabilities of the Democrats winning a specified number of the 58 elections, over a range of undecided voter allocation assumptions. The simulation produces a VERY ROBUST ESTIMATE of the number of elections that would need to be stolen in order for the GOP to retain control of the House.

SIMULATION OBJECTIVE:
Calculate a 25-scenario probability matrix based on
a) 5 scenarios of undecided voters allocated to the Democrats and
b) 5 scenarios of the number of captured GOP seats

In a published study of over 150 elections, the challenger won the undecided vote 82% of the time. Even with the VERY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTION that the Democrats will win just 50% of the undecided, it's a virtual 100% probability that they will WIN AT LEAST 25 SEATS, TEN more than they need for a House MAJORITY, assuming NO FRAUD.

In the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, in which it is assumed that the Democrats will win 60% of the undecided vote, they can expect to capture 32 of the 58 GOP-held seats. There is a 99% probability that they will win 30 or more. Therefore, in order to retain the House, the GOP will HAVE TO STEAL A MINIMUM of 15 elections.

Sensitivity Analysis
--------------------

UVA: Undecided voter % allocated to Democrats
UVA                50	 55	 60	 67	 75			
Dems win 	  ----------Probability%--------
25 seats	  100	100	100	100	100			
30 seats	   35	 85	 99	100	100			
35 seats	    0	  3	 30	 90	100			
40 seats	    0	  0	  0	  5	 70			
45 seats	    0	  0	  0	  0	  1

Assuming a 60% UVA, the probability of Dems winning N seats:
N	15	20	25	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39
Prob	100	100	100	99	96	86	75	51	30	13	 4	 1	 0

Polling Detail
-------------

Adjusted: Dem & GOP polls 
(60% undecided to Democrat)
Prob: probability of Democratic win
	                                                                UVA Adj@60%      DEM
     District                    Poll           Poll                     Challenger      WIN
Num     Code    Pollster	Sample	 MoE	Date	Dem	GOP     DEM     GOP      Prob
===    ======   ========        =======  ====   ======  ====    ====    ====    ====    ======
	        Average	        	 3.80	        45.4	45.9	50.6	49.4	 57.8%

1	 AZ-1	RT Strategies	 983 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 50	46	52.4	47.6	 99.9%
2	 AZ-5	SurveyUSA	 509 LV	 4.40	15-Oct	 45	48	49.2	50.8	 23.8%
3	 AZ-8	Zogby	         500 LV	 4.50	 2-Oct	 45	37	55.8	44.2	100.0%
4	 CA-4	RT Strategies	 997 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 44	52	46.4	53.6	  0.0%
5	 CA-11	Greenberg	 413 LV	 4.90	26-Sep	 48	46	51.6	48.4	 90.0%
										
6	 CA-50	SurveyUSA	 540 LV	 4.30	12-Sep	 40	54	43.6	56.4	  0.0%
7	 CO-4	Mason-Dixon	 400 LV	 5.00	 7-Oct	 36	46	46.8	53.2	  0.6%
8	 CO-5	Mason-Dixon	 400 LV	 5.00	 7-Oct	 37	37	52.6	47.4	 97.9%
9	 CO-7	RT Strategies	 991 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 47	47	50.6	49.4	 77.7%
10	 CT-2	Zogby	         500 LV	 4.50	 2-Oct	 41	44	50.0	50.0	 50.0%
										
11	 CT-4	Zogby	         500 LV	 4.50	 2-Oct	 46	41	53.8	46.2	100.0%
12	 CT-5	RT Strategies	 996 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 46	52	47.2	52.8	  0.0%
13	 FL-13	RT Strategies	1024 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 47	44	52.4	47.6	 99.9%
14	 FL-16	RT Strategies	1001 LV	 3.09	 1-Oct	 50	43	54.2	45.8	100.0%
15	 FL-22	RT Strategies	1022 LV	 3.10	29-Aug	 44	52	46.4	53.6	  0.0%
										
16	 ID-1	RT Strategies	 998 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 43	49	47.8	52.2	  0.3%
17	 IL-6	RT Strategies	 997 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 47	47	50.6	49.4	 77.8%
18	 IL-10	Mellman Group	 400 LV	 4.90	11-Oct	 32	49	43.4	56.6	  0.0%
19	 IL-14	RT Strategies	1003 LV	 3.08	10-Oct	 42	52	45.6	54.4	  0.0%
20	 IL-19	RT Strategies	1023 LV	 3.08	10-Oct	 36	53	42.6	57.4	  0.0%
										
21	 IN-2	RT Strategies	 989 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 50	46	52.4	47.6	 99.9%
22	 IN-8	Indiana State	 626 LV	 3.90	12-Oct	 55	32	62.5	37.5	100.0%
23	 IN-9	SurveyUSA	 512 LV	 4.40	15-Oct	 48	46	51.6	48.4	 92.3%
24	 IA-1	Bennett, Petts	 400 RV	 4.90	 8-Oct	 48	37	57.0	43.0	100.0%
25	 IA-2	RT Strategies	1006 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 48	47	51.0	49.0	 89.8%
										
26	 KY-3	RT Strategies	 996 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 48	48	50.4	49.6	 69.4%
27	 KY-4	RT Strategies	1000 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 46	49	49.0	51.0	 10.2%
28	 MN-1	RT Strategies	1024 LV	 3.08	10-Oct	 47	48	50.0	50.0	 50.0%
29	 MN-2	SurveyUSA	 519 LV	 4.40	15-Oct	 42	50	46.8	53.2	  0.2%
30	 MN-6	RT Strategies	 995 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 50	45	53.0	47.0	100.0%
										
31	 NV-3	Mason-Dixon	 400 RV	 5.00	21-Sep   37	47	46.6	53.4	  0.4%
32	 NH-1	Research 2000	 300 LV	 6.00	14-Sep	 31	56	38.8	61.2	  0.0%
33	 NH-2	Univ of NH	 220 LV	 6.20	24-Sep	 36	46	46.8	53.2	  2.2%
34	 NJ-7	RT Strategies	1022 LV	 3.10	10-Oct	 46	48	49.6	50.4	 30.6%
35	 NM-1	RT Strategies	 986 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 52	44	54.4	45.6	100.0%
										
36	 NY-3	RT Strategies	 984 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 46	48	49.6	50.4	 30.6%
37	 NY-19	Abacus Assoc	 600 RV	 4.00	15-Sep	 44	49	48.2	51.8	  3.9%
38	 NY-20	Grove Insight	 400 RV	 4.90	13-Oct	 41	42	51.2	48.8	 83.1%
39	 NY-24	RT Strategies	1029 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 53	42	56.0	44.0	100.0%
40	 NY-26	RT Strategies	1056 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 56	40	58.4	41.6	100.0%
										
41	 NY-29	Cooper&Secrest	 503 LV	 4.40	21-Sep	 39	43	49.8	50.2	 42.9%
42	 NC-8	RT Strategies	1029 LV	 3.08	10-Oct	 51	44	54.0	46.0	100.0%
43	 NC-11	RT Strategies	 979 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 51	43	54.6	45.4	100.0%
44	 OH-1	Anzalone-Liszt	 500 LV	 4.40	 1-Aug	 45	45	51.0	49.0	 81.4%
45	 OH-2	RT Strategies	1003 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 48	45	52.2	47.8	 99.7%
										
46	 OH-6	RT Strategies	 982 LV	 3.10	29-Aug	 56	40	58.4	41.6	100.0%
47	 OH-15	RT Strategies	1015 LV	 3.90	10-Oct	 53	41	56.6	43.4	100.0%
48	 OH-18	Greenberg	 400 RV	 5.00	11-Oct	 48	41	54.6	45.4	100.0%
49	 OK-5	SurveyUSA	 435 LV	 4.70	10-Oct	 33	62	36.0	64.0	  0.0%
50	 PA-6	RT Strategies	1023 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 52	46	53.2	46.8	100.0%
										
51	 PA-7	RT Strategies	1017 LV	 3.08	10-Oct   52	44	54.4	45.6	100.0%
52	 PA-8	Grove Insight	 400 RV	 4.90	15-Oct	 44	40	53.6	46.4	 99.8%
53	 PA-10	Bennett,Petts	 400 RV	 4.90	 9-Oct	 51	37	58.2	41.8	100.0%
54	 VA-2	RT Strategies	 982 LV	 3.10	10-Oct	 46	48	49.6	50.4	 30.6%
55	 VA-5	SurveyUSA	 502 LV	 4.40	10-Oct	 40	56	42.4	57.6	  0.0%
										
56	 VA-10	RT Strategies	1004 LV	 3.07	10-Oct	 42	47	48.6	51.4	  3.7%
57	 WA-8	RT Strategies	1015 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 45	48	49.2	50.8	 15.5%
58	 WI-8	RT Strategies	 983 LV	 3.09	10-Oct	 48	46	51.6	48.4	 97.9%