Reply #19: There are other models - this isn't definite.

[Avalux]

Here's the latest from Jeff Masters at Weather Underground. Apparently it's anybody's guess where it will go; will depend on a trough in the gulf:

"As Ernesto crosses into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will be swinging across the eastern U.S. and should pull the storm on a more northerly track. Most of the models are showing that this trough will be strong enough to bring the storm all the way to the coast between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, the trough may not be strong enough to do this, and Ernesto could get stuck in the Gulf for a week, potentially heading westwards towards Texas as a new ridge of high pressure builds in. A subsequent trough could then turn the storm northwards into the coast at some later time. The UKMET model and GFS model prefer this solution. At this point, there is not enough information to say which solution is most likely, and residents from Texas to the Florida Keys need to be prepared for this storm to affect them."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=482&tstamp=200608

I don't want the thing to hit anywhere, but Texas could use the rain at least, minus the destruction. It's just too horrifying to think of NO being clobbered again.