Reply #2: Most likely

[Clara T]

as is Horton.

WHO warns army may be needed to fight bird flu
By David Pilling in Tokyo
Published: January 13 2006 02:00 | Last updated: January 13 2006 02:00

The World Health Organisation yesterday predicted authorities might need to use the army and police to quarantine about 120,000 people to contain aninitial pandemic flu outbreak of just 19 cases.
Hitoshi Oshitani, a consultant to WHO, said his estimates highlighted the difficulty of formulating a rapid response toan initial outbreak of mutated bird flu transmitted between humans.

Not only would such aggressive quarantining raise legal and human rights concerns, he said, but knowledge about how to use antiviral drugs as a preventative measure was limited.

Mr Oshitani, who presented his simulation at an international conference in Tokyo, said the first requirement was rapid detection.

"Timeliness is key. If we do things the way we do right now, it will probably be too late," he said, adding that two weeks after an outbreak was probably the absolute limit.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6aa9e306-83d9-11da-9017-0000779e2340.html