Reply #8: I know nothing about handicapping horses

[karynnj]

but Kerry seems the the better horse from this information. (I had forgotten how poorly he did in 1988 until reading the article posted in Sara's thread - which I think said he polled something like 3%. I also remember he had some kind of nasty fight with one of the other candidates.

The other think that many forget is how easily Kerry won the primaries. Some put it down to front loading - but if you compare the dynamics to 1992, if either Edwards or Clark were as good a candidate as Kerry, they could have easily become the frontrunner on the first multi-state day. Kerry won Iowa with 38% and Edwards got 32%, Dean 17%. IN NH, Kerry got 38%, Dean 26%, Edwards 12%, Clark 12%. So at that point, Kerry was clearly the front runner and Dean and Edwards were tied for second.

Edwards or even Clark had the potential to pull an upset in the first multi-state day. The states, SC, OK, MO, DE, NM and AZ were the type of states, except DE (and even Delaware is a Mason Dixon line border state) that the "red state - friendly" Edwards or Clark should have done well in if they were going to do well anywhere. These are not Massachusetts liberal friendy states. The media in fact ran stories on Edwards at this point. Kerry won 5 of the states and did poorly in none. The lowest result he got was 27% in OK to 30% each for Clark (who won) and Edwards. In South Carolina, Edwards got 45%, Kerry 30% and Clark 7%. In Mo, Kerry got 51%, Edwards 25%, Clark 4%. In no other state did Edwards get above 11%. (Numbers from: http://rhodescook.com/primary.analysis.html )

CNN reported the day as a big win for Kerry and a small win for Edwards. In my view - this was too positive for Edwards, given the states involved - it was a huge Kerry win. All without the usual he's got the momentum stories. In reality, from the moment the first state cast it's votes, Kerry was the winner.

Kerry clearly didn't have the party or media support that say Hillary is likely to get, so it had to be that when people looked at his credentials or saw him, he was a very impressive candidate who connected very well. I loved the comments of Femrap who saw him at Utica this weekend. She wrote:

"I also attended his Campaign Speech in Newark, Ohio in the summer of 2004.

What a difference! During the '04 campaign, I would scream at TV when I heard Kerry speak, "Speak from your damn heart....stop listening to your dumbass advisors."

Yesterday, he spoke from his heart and people were just awed. He was honest, funny, approachable, kind, smart, caring....everything everyone would want in a President. He even admitted to making mistakes.

He was signing autographs when I approached him...I had to thank him for trying to stop the Alito nomination....he told me that he just doesn't get it....all his colleagues say they don't want Alito but they won't stand up for their convictions. Well, I would have just loved to delve into that conversation....but I said instead that he should tell his colleagues that many of us along with Daniel Elsberg (who I heard say this on Democracy, Now) are self-hating Democrats due to their behavior. He got a kick out of that...and laughed. "


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