Reply #5: I think it's part of the 'after the fact' justification of what happened

[TayTay]

This is kind of silly on it's face, isn't it? The pollster have been telling us that the base the Dems draw on is considerably smaller than the base the Rethugs draw on. So, by definition, in order to get to 48%, didn't Kerry draw a larger percentage of moderate or independent voters than Bush did? Wasn't it Rove's idea to play to his base, not really care about the middle and just go with that?

These conclusions are unsupported. Also, the difference is 3-4% which is not that significant. (And can be explained by the war and the desire by the electorate to not change CICs in war-time.) I don't agree with Zogby at all. I saw a lot of fluctuations in the polls last time.