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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Sports Donate to DU
Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-22-10 01:58 AM
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1. You might be interested in this
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=697121

Download link at top. It's recently updated academic research on market efficiency and the NFL draft.

I've been sampling it for the past few days. Among their basic conclusions:

* The so-called value Chart, used for trade purposes, is flawed, too much of a premium to move up. Comical to read its origins, starting in Dallas and based on only a few years of drafts, never intended to be a specific guideline. It was lazily swooped up when Cowboys front office workers got jobs elsewhere in the league

* Trading down is wise, with best value late first and particularly early second round

* The top pick in the draft is actually the least desirable in the first round, from a cost/return standpoint

* Psychological-based evaluation that NFL teams are overconfident in their ratings due to soaking in so much information leading to the draft
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