Reply #187: And don't forget: 4.5mm (6.8%) of total votes cast for Kerry were switched NATIONALLY

[glengarry]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/TruthIsAllFAQResponse.htm#UncountedAndSwitchedVotes


Uncounted and Switched Votes

Given the Kerry true vote of 66.1 million (based on the 12:22am NEP with feasible weights) and his recorded vote (59.0mm) we can calculate the number of votes which were switched from Kerry to Bush. If we assume that Kerry won 75% (2.6 of 3.4mm) of the uncounted votes based on the Census total of 125.7mm, then 4.5mm (6.8%) of the Kerry vote must have been switched. Furthermore, if we assume that 6.8% of the votes were switched uniformly in each state and allocate the uncounted votes to each state based on population and racial mix, the True Vote Model indicates that Kerry won 336 electoral votes (Sensitivity Analysis I). This result matched the pre-election Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation base case forecast that Kerry would win 337 electoral votes (the average of 5000 election trials). The assumption was that Kerry would win 75% of the undecided vote.



12:22am National Exit Poll



Voted in 2000
....... Weight Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 27.02 57% 41% 2%
Gore 38.23% 48.08 91% 8% 1%
Bush 37.83% 47.56 10% 90% 0%
Nader 2.46% 3.09 71% 21% 8%

Total 100% 52.57% 46.43% 1.00%
Votes 125.74 66.10 58.38 1.26

Given:
125.74 million votes cast (2004 Census)
122.295 million votes recorded
3.445 million votes uncounted

Assume:
2.584 million (75%) uncounted votes for Kerry
95% turnout of Gore and Bush 2000 voters

Calculate:
The number of votes cast for Kerry switched to Bush.

Solution:
True Vote (T) = Recorded (R) + Uncounted (U) + Switched (S)
S = T - R - U = 66.097 - 59.027 - 2.582 = 4.488mm

Switched vote rate:
SVR = S / T = 4.488 / 66.097 = 6.79%


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS II:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on electoral vote


........... Kerry Electoral Vote

........... Uncounted Vote Share
...... 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%
SVR
6.8% 325 325 325 325 325 336 336
6.5% 325 325 325 325 325 325 336
6.0% 325 325 325 325 325 325 325
5.0% 298 298 325 325 325 325 325

4.0% 289 289 289 289 289 325 325
3.0% 289 289 289 289 289 289 289
2.0% 264 284 284 284 289 289 289
1.0% 264 264 264 264 264 264 284
0.0% 252 252 252 252 259 264 264



SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS III:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on Kerry vote share

.............. Kerry Vote Share

.............. Uncounted Vote Share
...... 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00%
SVR
6.8% 51.89% 52.03% 52.16% 52.30% 52.44% 52.57% 52.71%
6.5% 51.73% 51.87% 52.00% 52.14% 52.28% 52.42% 52.55%
6.0% 51.47% 51.60% 51.74% 51.88% 52.02% 52.15% 52.29%
5.0% 50.94% 51.08% 51.22% 51.35% 51.49% 51.63% 51.76%

4.0% 50.42% 50.55% 50.69% 50.83% 50.96% 51.10% 51.24%
3.0% 49.89% 50.03% 50.16% 50.30% 50.44% 50.58% 50.71%
2.0% 49.36% 49.50% 49.64% 49.78% 49.91% 50.05% 50.19%
1.0% 48.84% 48.98% 49.11% 49.25% 49.39% 49.52% 49.66%
0.0% 48.31% 48.45% 48.59% 48.72% 48.86% 49.00% 49.14%



SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IV:
Effect of incremental uncounted and switched votes on margin


................ Margin (in thousands)

............ Uncounted Vote Share
.......... 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80%
SVR
6.8% 6011 6355 6699 7044 7388 7732 8077
6.5% 5614 5958 6303 6647 6991 7336 7680
6.0% 4953 5297 5642 5986 6330 6675 7019
5.0% 3631 3975 4320 4664 5008 5353 5697

4.0% 2309 2654 2998 3342 3686 4031 4375
3.0% 987 1332 1676 2020 2365 2709 3053
2.0% -335 10 354 698 1043 1387 1731
1.0% -1657 -1312 -968 -624 -279 65 409
0.0% -2979 -2634 -2290 -1946 -1601 -1257 -913