Reply #15: I don't get it

[BeFree]

Where the problem lies is with the 30% of early votes compared with the 70% final day votes. One would think that a poll of 30% of the actual votes would be a pretty accurate poll, eh?

PRESIDENT (absentee)
George W. Bush: 529,755 52.9%
John F. Kerry: 469,522 46.9% -6.0
Others: 2749 0.2%

PRESIDENT (overall)
George W. Bush: 1,961,188 56.0%
John F. Kerry: 1,525,821 43.6% -12.4
Others: 13,989 0.4%

PRESIDENT (poll only)
George W. Bush: 1,431,433 57.3%
John F. Kerry: 1,056,299 42.3% -15.0
Others: 11,240 0.4%

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I asked Febble if we could see the list of the 40 precincts of exit-poll numbers, so that we could do a study of just those 40 precincts comparing the 2000 vote, and the machines used both times and the 2004 vote.

That's why just 40 precincts.