Reply #21: the problem with using percentages is also that Bush's percentage

[Land Shark]

could drop in a given precinct, but greater turnout pie could mean more of a net benefit to Bush in terms of the total lead he emerges from that precinct with.

precinct X, 1000 voters in 2000
Bush share 60% nets him 600 votes, relative to Kerry's 400, net benefit to bush is 200 vote lead

Precinct X, 1200 voters in 2004
Bush share of 55% nets him 660 votes, a gain of 60 over 2000
while Kerry's share of 45% gets him 540 a net gain over his 2000 performance of 140 votes. Bush has dropped 5 full percentage points but Kerry picks up only 80 votes relative to the bottom line of 200 vote advantage for Bush in 2000.

Same Precinct X, again in 2004, this time Bush gets 58%, down only 2% from 2000 instead of 5% as in the example immediately above.
Bush share of 58% nets him 696 votes in this precinct, while Kerry's share is 504 votes. Now the bottom line is a 192 vote advantage for Bush over kerry, almost identical to 2000 even though Bush has lost 2 percentage points to Kerry.

I know Febble and OTOH and SunshineKathy and any other respectable mathematicians can devise a formula, the variables for which are "INCREASE TURNOUT FOR PRECINCT" in question, BUSH2000%, KERRY2000%, BUSH2004% and KERRY2004%. then, for a given increase in turnout based on known 2000 performances of Kerry and Bush, you can calculate ON A PRECINCT BASIS (Because iT'S DIFFERENT IN EACH ONE) where the break points are in terms of creating or not creating red shift correlation with gain.

Now, if LShark's evil twin combines these precinct breakpoints with detailed polling data (assume it's accurate of actual turnout) OR in the alternative combines these precinct breakouts with actual real time results at some point preferably during election day or at the tabulator level, then one can divine rather quickly, with the aid of computers, precisely which precincts to tinker with and by how much to avoid smoking guns in the traditionally expected sense, yet still add/hide a lot of net benefit to *.