Reply #58: Not quite

[mgr]

The question 'who did you vote for in 2000' is on a separate questionaire than 'are you a new voter'. So we need to be careful with our language.

Those who reliably state that they did not vote in 2000 are either new voters or casual voters. To my thinking, a new voter is unlikely to misrepresent themselves for the simple reason that there isn't any compelling reason to misrepresent the facts. The casual voter is likely, so can be represented in both classes.

The fact that we see high allegiance to voting once again by Gore and Bush voters suggest that they were motivated, and this same variable motivated these casual voters to vote as well. What is likely is that Florida's 2000 recount likely shamed voters that intended to vote, but did not (casual) for not performing their civic duty into voting in 2004. That shame could manifest itself in a white lie.

Rbr is not causally linked to this issue. Rbr suggests that a larger percentage of Bush supporters refused to respond to the exit poll than Kerry supporters. What is most likely to motivate them--apathy--they are performing their civic duty because they are supposed to, but that does not mean that they have done any meaningful analysis or evaluation of the issues. An apathetic voter is one that votes for the incumbent.

A casual voter may be apathetic, but not all apathetic voters are casual.

Mike