11 ALPHA SCENARIOS: BASE CASE (NO BIAS) ALPHA = 1.0
Edited on Thu Jun-09-05 08:13 AM by TruthIsAll
ANALYSIS OF EXIT POLL RESPONSE
BY PARTISANSHIP FOR VARIOUS ALPHA (K/B)
AND CONSTANT RESPONSE RATE (R=53%)
ASSUME KERRY WON: 51.8% - 48.2%
HIGH SOLID NON- HIGH SOLID
AVERAGE BUSH BUSH PART. KERRY KERRY
K/B 0.95 1.25 0.97 0.87 1.03 1.08
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.61% 39.10% 56.94% 59.84% 79.56%
Kpoll 49.52% 22.47% 38.21% 51.14% 60.93% 83.09%
WPE 4.55% -7.71% 1.78% 11.59% -2.19% -7.07%
K/B 0.96 1.25 0.98 0.88 1.04 1.08
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.61% 39.00% 57.02% 59.82% 79.55%
Kpoll 49.92% 22.48% 38.41% 51.84% 61.06% 83.18%
WPE 3.77% -7.73% 1.17% 10.36% -2.48% -7.27%
K/B 0.97 1.25 0.99 0.89 1.04 1.08
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.61% 38.90% 57.10% 59.80% 79.54%
Kpoll 50.30% 22.49% 38.61% 52.53% 61.18% 83.27%
WPE 2.99% -7.76% 0.58% 9.15% -2.76% -7.46%
K/B 0.98 1.25 1.00 0.91 1.04 1.08
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.60% 38.81% 57.18% 59.78% 79.54%
Kpoll 50.69% 22.50% 38.81% 53.21% 61.30% 83.36%
WPE 2.23% -7.79% -0.01% 7.95% -3.04% -7.66%
K/B 0.99 1.25 1.01 0.92 1.05 1.09
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.60% 38.72% 57.26% 59.77% 79.53%
Kpoll 51.07% 22.51% 39.02% 53.88% 61.43% 83.45%
WPE 1.47% -7.82% -0.59% 6.75% -3.32% -7.85%
BASE CASE:
ALPHA = 1.0
K/B 1.00 1.25 1.02 0.93 1.05 1.09
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.59% 38.64% 57.33% 59.75% 79.52%
Kpoll 51.44% 22.52% 39.22% 54.54% 61.55% 83.54%
WPE 0.72% -7.84% -1.16% 5.57% -3.60% -8.04%
K/B 1.01 1.25 1.03 0.95 1.06 1.09
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.59% 38.55% 57.40% 59.74% 79.52%
Kpoll 51.81% 22.53% 39.42% 55.20% 61.67% 83.63%
WPE -0.03% -7.87% -1.73% 4.40% -3.87% -8.24%
K/B 1.02 1.25 1.04 0.96 1.06 1.09
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.59% 38.48% 57.46% 59.72% 79.51%
Kpoll 52.18% 22.54% 39.62% 55.84% 61.80% 83.72%
WPE -0.77% -7.90% -2.28% 3.24% -4.15% -8.43%
K/B 1.03 1.25 1.05 0.98 1.06 1.10
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.58% 38.40% 57.52% 59.71% 79.50%
Kpoll 52.55% 22.55% 39.82% 56.48% 61.92% 83.81%
WPE -1.50% -7.93% -2.83% 2.09% -4.42% -8.62%
K/B 1.04 1.26 1.06 0.99 1.07 1.10
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.58% 38.33% 57.58% 59.70% 79.50%
Kpoll 52.91% 22.56% 40.02% 57.11% 62.04% 83.90%
WPE -2.22% -7.95% -3.38% 0.95% -4.70% -8.81%
K/B 1.05 1.26 1.07 1.00 1.07 1.10
Resp. 53.00% 40.00% 51.56% 51.76% 60.00% 60.00%
Kvote 51.80% 18.58% 38.26% 57.64% 59.68% 79.49%
Kpoll 53.27% 22.57% 40.22% 57.73% 62.17% 83.99%
WPE -2.94% -7.98% -3.91% -0.18% -4.97% -9.00%
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WPE SENSITIVITY TO ALPHA
K/B AVG HB B BK K HK
0.95 4.55% -7.71% 1.78% 11.59% -2.19% -7.07%
0.96 3.77% -7.73% 1.17% 10.36% -2.48% -7.27%
0.97 2.99% -7.76% 0.58% 9.15% -2.76% -7.46%
0.98 2.23% -7.79% -0.01% 7.95% -3.04% -7.66%
0.99 1.47% -7.82% -0.59% 6.75% -3.32% -7.85%
1.00 0.72% -7.84% -1.16% 5.57% -3.60% -8.04%
1.01 -0.03% -7.87% -1.73% 4.40% -3.87% -8.24%
1.02 -0.77% -7.90% -2.28% 3.24% -4.15% -8.43%
1.03 -1.50% -7.93% -2.83% 2.09% -4.42% -8.62%
1.04 -2.22% -7.95% -3.38% 0.95% -4.70% -8.81%
1.05 -2.94% -7.98% -3.91% -0.18% -4.97% -9.00%