Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....

[TruthIsAll]

	RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER PROBABILITY ANALYSIS					
Once again, we show how implausible the rBr hypothesis is
using simple binomial probabilities.
								
How to read the tables:						
Each Case assumes 1000 respondents and a given response rate.

For example, look at Case 1:
It assumes a 53% response rate						
For the scenario where Kerry wins the exit poll by 52-48%, the
probability that Bush would win 479 (54%) of the 887 who
refused to be interviewed is .02% (1 in 5000). 
	
								
			Response Rate Table					
Response rate	50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%
Responders	1000	1000	1000	1000
Refusers	1000	961	923	887		
Total		2000	1961	1923	1887		
								
CASE I								
Response rate							
53%			Bush Percent of Refusers			
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
887			444	452	461	470	479	488
Scenario:							
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.85%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		3.68%	0.83%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		11.66%	3.62%	0.82%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
51%	49%		27.56%	11.50%	3.56%	0.80%	0.16%	0.02%
50%	50%		50.00%	27.28%	11.34%	3.49%	0.94%	0.16%
								
CASE II								
Response rate							
52%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
923			461	471	480	489	498	508
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.74%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		3.40%	0.78%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		11.20%	3.53%	0.68%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%
51%	49%		27.16%	11.50%	3.15%	0.71%	0.12%	0.01%
50%	50%		50.00%	27.68%	10.55%	3.26%	0.74%	0.12%
								
CASE III							
Response rate							
51%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
961			480	490	500	509	519	528
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.59%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		2.91%	0.56%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		10.16%	2.76%	0.62%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
51%	49%		25.71%	9.72%	3.01%	0.58%	0.09%	0.01%
50%	50%		50.00%	24.90%	10.41%	2.84%	0.65%	0.09%