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3 POWERFUL NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-12-05 07:50 PM
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3 POWERFUL NAT. EXIT POLL GRAPHS: TIMELINE, KERRY MARGINS, VOTER TURNOUT
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Edited on Thu May-12-05 08:18 PM by TruthIsAll
1) The National Exit Poll Timeline:
Notice the final timeline reversal in Kerry numbers (13660 respondents).

Kerry's percentages were fairly constant up to and including the 13047 respondent timeline. Hey maintained a steady 51-48% lead in the timeline from 8349 to 11027 to 13047 respondents.

What happened with the 13660 Final, which was matched to the votes to give Bush a 51-48% exit poll win?

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2) Kerry's winning margins I:
For 96%,98%,100% Gore 2000 voter turnout and 100% Bush voter turnout assumptions, along with Kerry deviations from the 13047 exit poll (0%is the actual base case) of -1%, -2%, -3%).

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3) Kerry's winning margins II:
Sensitivity analysis of various combinations of Gore/Bush 2000 voter turnout. Kerry wins even if one assumes an impossible 85% Gore turnout vs. 100% for Bush.

After viewing this graph, how can anyone still believe the Reluctant Bush Responder hypothesis. We are assuming that 15% of Gore voters were so reluctant they didn't even VOTE, much less respond to an exit pollster.

And Kerry still wins by two million votes.

Febble, are you listening?


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