Reply #1: How Voted in 2000: Various scenarios and Best Estimate of the mix

[TruthIsAll]

We know that the Final Exit Poll 43% Bush /37% Gore weights
are IMPOSSIBLE.

The Preliminary Exit Poll 41%/39% is closer to the truth - but
still not there. To believe it was 41%/39%, one must assume
that Bush 2000 voters defied the U.S. annual 0.87% death rate.

Here is a plausible range of possibilities, assuming the death
rate and various percentages of 2000 voters who chose to sit
out the 2004 election.

ESTIMATE OF HOW MANY 2000 VOTERS TURNED OUT IN 2004
BEST ESTIMATE: 1% did not return to vote								
								
	Total	Pct 	3.50%	Alive	Max	1.00%	Max	Final
2000	Vote	2004	Died	2004	Weight	NoVote	Voted	Weight
Bush	50.456	41.27%	1.766	48.690	39.82%	0.505	48.185	39.41%
Gore	50.999	41.71%	1.785	49.214	40.25%	0.510	48.704	39.84%
Other	3.315	2.71%	0.116	3.199	2.62%	0.033	3.166	2.59%

Total	104.77	85.69%	3.667	101.10	82.70%	1.048	100.05	81.84%

48.185mil Bush 2000 voters turned out:	95.50%				
1.766	mil Bush voters died:			3.50%				
0.505	mil Bush voters stayed home:		1.00%				

48.704mil Gore voters turned out:		95.50%				
1.785	mil Gore voters died:			3.50%				
0.510	mil Gore voters stayed home:		1.00%				
						

Final Weightings based on percentage of 2000 voters still
alive who did not vote in 2004:									

NoVote 0.00% 0.25%	0.50%	0.75%	1.00%	1.25%	1.50%	1.75%	2.00%
Bush	39.82%	39.72%	39.62%	39.52%	39.41%	39.31%	39.21%	39.10%	39.00%
Gore	40.25%	40.15%	40.05%	39.94%	39.84%	39.73%	39.63%	39.52%	39.42%
Other	2.62%	2.61%	2.60%	2.60%	2.59%	2.58%	2.58%	2.57%	2.56%

TOTAL	82.70%	82.48%	82.27%	82.05%	81.84%	81.62%	81.41%	81.20%	80.98%


These are the corresponding stats for 2004 voters who did not
vote in 2000:

New 	21.16	21.42	21.68	21.94	22.20	22.47	22.73	22.99	23.25
% New
	17.30%	17.52%	17.73%	17.95%	18.16%	18.38%	18.59%	18.80%	19.02%