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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore | Mon Mar-30-09 11:38 PM Original message |
The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008 (TIA) |
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The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008 TruthIsAll source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htm Mar 30, 2009 In analyzing historical election data, an ongoing pattern of statistical anomalies leads to two conclusions: the recorded vote does not reflect the True Vote, and the pattern always favors the Republicans. This brief summary of recurring anomalies since the 2000 Selection is powerful evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections. The analysis does not include millions of potential Democrats who were disenfranchised and never even got to vote. Uncounted Votes There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The majority (70-80%) are Democratic. Late Votes The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections. Undecided voters Historically, undecided voters break (60-90%) for the challenger. Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters. The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in the last three elections,. Pre-election Polls Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered. In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election. LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote. The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters as in 2004, 2006 and 2008. The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004. The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%. A regression analysis of Kerrys vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA). Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share. There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerrys LV poll share and LV/RV turnout. In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force. New Voters According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin. In 2008, Obama won new voters by approximately 71-27%; in 2004, Kerry won new voters by approximately 57-41%. The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RV LV) between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size. The Obama / McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% Final NEP new voter share. The Kerry / Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% Prelim NEP new voter share. The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout. It is estimated by the simple formula: New voters = current election votes cast (prior election votes cast voter mortality) * prior-voter turnout Applying the new voter formula based on 2008 votes cast (135.43m, estimate) and the 2004 votes cast (125.74m), Given ~1.16% annual voter mortality (~5.83m over 4 years) and an approximate 98% turnout of 2004 election voters in 2008: New 2008 voters ~= 17.9 million = (135.43 (125.74 5.83)* 0.98) = (135.43 119.91*.98) New Voters recorded ~= 17.4m = 17.9 * (131.37/135.43) (based on total recorded vote). According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37). Applying the new voter formula based on 2004 votes cast (125.736m) and 2000 votes cast (110.826m), given ~1.19% average annual voter mortality New 2004 voters ('DNV' 2000) = 22.3 million = 125.736 (110.826 5.28)* 0.98 = 125.74 105.55*.98 = 125.74 - 103.44 There were approximately 3.8 million returning Nader voters. Kerry won 2.4 million (64%); Bush had 0.7 million (17%). According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won 13.4 million new voters (57% of 'DNV'); Bush had 9.6 million (41%). Of the 26.1 million new and returning Nader voters, Kerry won 15.8m and Bush 10.1m a 5.7 million Kerry margin. Since Bush won the official recorded vote by 3 million, almost 8.7 million more returning-Gore voters than Bush voters had to have defected. But the 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry, and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. Final National Exit Poll The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote count. In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore 43/37% voter mix was impossible. In 2006, the returning 49/43% Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible. In 2008, the returning 46/37% Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible. 2000 Gore won by 51.050.46m (48.3847.87%). The Census reported 110.8 million votes cast, but just 105.4m were recorded. The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote. Approximately 4 million of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore. Therefore he won the True Vote by 5552m. The election was stolen. 2004 Bush won the recorded vote by 62.059.0m (50.73-48.27%) Kerry won the unadjusted (WPE) state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%. He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%. He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix. The Final NEP (13660 sample) was 'forced to match' the 50.748.3% Bush recorded margin. To force the match in the Final NEP: a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased, b) The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%. The mix indicates an impossible 52.6m (43% of 122.3) returning Bush 2000 voters. Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004. So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters. The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million. Kerry won the True Vote by 810 million. The election was stolen. 2006 Midterms Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls. The final trend line projection was a 56.4341.67 Democratic landslide. At 7pm, the NEP indicated a 5543% landslide. The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%. The Final was forced to match the 5246% recorded vote. To force the match: a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased, b) the returning voter mix was changed to an implausible 49/43%. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The landslide was denied. 2008 Obama won the recorded vote by 69.459.9m (52.945.6%) Obama led the final pre-election registered voter polls by 5239%. The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote. To force the match, the Final indicated an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix. The mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million assuming zero fraud in 2004. It overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million assuming the unadjusted (WPE) 2004 state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 5247%). The Final indicated that an impossible 5.2 million (4% of 131.37m) were returning third-party voters. There were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004. The Final indicated there were 60.4 million (46% of 131.37m) returning Bush voters. Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud). Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008. Therefore there were approximately 56 million returning Bush voters. Assuming no fraud in 2004, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million. On the other hand, assuming that Kerry won by 5247%, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million. Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half. The landslide was denied. In summary: If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible. Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible. Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count. Census Voting Statistics (in millions) 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Total Recorded Votes Dem Rep Other Registered Voters Change from prior year 4-year mortality New Registered Total votes cast Change from prior year 4-year mortality Percentages Voting age, 18+ Registered voters Change from prior year Uncounted % of Cast Uncounted Votes Democrat (75%) Republican (25%) Net Democratic 92.03 37.58 54.46 0.00 116.11 11.07 6.04 16.62 101.88 8.81 5.30 59.94 87.75 9.47 9.66 9.85 7.38 2.46 4.92 91.60 41.81 48.89 0.90 118.59 2.48 6.07 8.52 102.22 0.35 5.23 57.40 86.20 0.34 10.40 10.63 7.97 2.66 5.31 103.75 44.91 39.10 19.74 126.58 7.99 6.38 14.06 113.87 11.64 5.74 61.32 89.96 11.39 8.88 10.12 7.59 2.53 5.06 91.27 45.59 37.82 7.87 127.66 1.08 6.33 7.46 105.02 -8.85 5.21 54.23 82.26 -7.77 13.09 13.74 10.31 3.44 6.87 105.42 51.00 50.46 3.28 129.55 1.89 6.32 8.22 110.83 5.81 5.41 54.70 85.55 5.53 4.88 5.41 4.06 1.35 2.70 122.30 59.03 62.04 1.23 142.07 12.52 6.82 18.84 125.74 14.91 6.04 58.30 88.51 13.46 2.74 3.44 2.58 0.86 1.72 Uncounted Votes Census-Reported Votes Cast States-Recorded Votes Counted Votes Uncounted 2008 2004 2000 na 125.74 110.83 131.37 122.29 105.42 na 3.45 5.41 Late Votes 2008 Election Day Late Total 2004 Election Day Late Total 2000 Election Day Late Total Total 121.21 10.16 131.37 Total 116.7 5.6 122.3 Total 102.6 2.8 105.4 Obama 63.4 6.01 69.46 Kerry 56.4 2.6 59.0 Gore 49.5 1.5 51.00 McCain 56.1 3.81 59.94 Bush 59.8 2.2 62.0 Bush 49.3 1.2 50.46 Other 1.64 0.34 1.98 Other 0.40 0.80 1.20 Other 3.8 0.1 3.95 Obama 52.3% 52.87%59.2% Kerry 48.3% 48.27%46.9% Gore 48.2% 48.38%53.6% McCain 46.3% 37.5% 45.62% Bush 51.3% 39.4% 50.73% Bush 48.1% 42.9% 47.87% Other 1.4% 3.3% 1.51% Other 0.4% 13.7% 1.00% Other 3.7% 3.5% 3.75% Dem Margin + 6.0 +21.7 3.0 + 7.5 + 0.1 +10.7 2000 Voter Mortality Mortality Table Age AnnualRate NEP Age Annual Rate Voter Mort. Votes Cast Mix Final 2000 NEP Gore Bush Other Total Voter Deaths Gore Bush Other 15-24 25-45 45-64 65+ 0.09% 0.18% 0.71% 5.07% 18-29 30-44 45-59 60+ Total Mort. Deaths 4-year Annual 0.10% 0.20% 0.60% 4.00% 1.22% Total 5.38 4.88% 1.22% 0.019 0.064 0.199 1.064 1.346 Gore 2.71 50.37% 1.26% 18.84 32.13 33.24 26.59 110.8 Bush 2.55 47.38% 1.20% 17% 29% 30% 24% 100% Total Other 0.121 2.25% 0.84% 48% 48% 48% 51% 48.72% 53.98 46% 49% 49% 47% 48.01% 53.20 6% 3% 3% 2% 3.27% 3.62 0.036 0.123 0.383 2.170 2.712 5.02% 0.035 0.126 0.391 2.000 2.551 4.80% 0.005 0.008 0.024 0.085 0.121 3.35% 2008 Final Pre-election Polls RV and LV The Obama:McCain 'RV minus LV' shares are 73.326.7%, closely matching post-election, Final exit poll 'New Voter' shares, 7127%. The 1052 difference i.e. the 3-poll RV samples (8581) exclusive their LV subsets (7529) comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample. Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 17.6m newly-registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2004) 13% of 135.43m. Sample 2824 2762 2995 8581 Subset 2472 2470 2587 7529 Obama 53 54 50 52.27% Obama 53 53 49 51.63% McCain 40 41 39 39.97% McCain 42 44 42 42.66% Spread 13 13 11 12.3% Spread 11 9 7 9.0% Undecided 6.06% Undecided 4.79% Registered Voters (RV) Likely Voters (LV subset) Gallup ABC Pew Total Share Total 2627 2623 2666 7916 92.3% Obama 1497 1491 1498 4486 52.3% McCain 1130 1132 1168 3430 40.0% Total 2348 2396 2355 7099 94.3% Obama 1310 1309 1268 3887 51.6% McCain 1038 1087 1087 3212 42.7% RVLV "RV minus LV" Voters Gallup ABC Pew Total Total 278 228 311 817 Obama 187 182 230 599 McCain 91 46 82 218 Obama 67.1% 80.0% 73.8% 73.3% McCain 32.9% 20.0% 26.2% 26.7% Spread 34.3% 60.0% 47.6% 46.6% Post-Election Preliminary NEP DNV Voters ? ? Post-Election 2:34p Final NEP 71% 27% 2008 Undecided Voter Allocation Pre-election Poll (%) Undecided Voters Allocated 2008 Gallup IBD Zogby Dem Corp Ipsos Pew Average Obama 53 47.3 51 51 50 49 50.22 McCain 42 42.8 44 44 42 42 42.8 Spread 11 4.5 7 7 8 7 7.42 Polls Avg Diff UVA Obama 55 51.5 54.1 53 53 52 53.10 50.22 2.88 62.9% McCain 44 44.3 42.7 44 46 46 44.50 42.80 1.70 37.1% Spread 11 7.2 11.4 9 7 6 8.60 7.42 1.18 25.8% UVA 83.7% to Obama Gallup IBD Zogby DemCorp 50.6 43.2 7.2 Polls Avg Diff UVA 53.4 50.6 2.8 83.7% 43.8 43.2 0.5 16.3% 9.7 7.2 2.4 67.4% UVA 57.1% to McCain Ipsos Pew 49.5 42.0 7.3 Polls Avg Diff UVA 52.5 49.5 3.0 42.9% 46.0 42.0 4.0 57.1% 6.5 7.3 -0.8 -14.2% 2004 Final Pre-election Polls The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in sample between the RV and LV subset (57.842.2%) matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll 'New Voter' shares: 57412%. The 1769 difference i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive their LV subsets (8541) comprised 17.2% of the total (RV) sample. In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2000) 17% of 125.7m votes cast. Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers. The average pre-election poll projected turnout of registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered). The census reported an 88.5% voter turnout (125.7m of 142.1m registered). Actual Poll (%) 0.75 0.25 Undecided Voters Allocated RV 1-Nov 31-Oct 31-Oct 31-Oct 30-Oct LV 1-Nov 31-Oct 31-Oct 31-Oct 30-Oct Poll CBS Fox Gallup ABC Pew Total Average Poll CBS Fox Gallup ABC Pew Total Average Sample 1125 1400 1866 3511 2408 10310 2062 Sample 939 1200 1573 2904 1925 8541 1708 Kerry 46 48 48 48 46 47.2 Kerry 47 48 49 48 48 48 Bush 47 45 46 47 45 46 Bush 49 46 49 49 51 48.8 Spread -1 3 2 1 1 1.2 Spread -2 2 0 -1 -3 -0.8 Kerry 50.50 52.50 51.75 51.00 52.00 51.55 Kerry 49.25 51.75 49.75 49.50 48.00 49.65 Bush 48.50 46.50 47.25 48.00 47.00 47.45 Bush 49.75 47.25 49.25 49.50 51.00 49.35 Spread 2.0 6.0 4.5 3.0 5.0 4.1 Spread -0.5 4.5 0.5 0.0 -3.0 0.3 Projected Turnout 83.5% 85.7% 84.3% 82.7% 79.9% 82.8% Pre-election Polls Final RV and LV Samples Registered Voters (RV) Likely Voters (LV subset) CBS Fox Gallup ABC Pew Total Total 1047 1302 1754 3335 2192 9629 93.4% Kerry 518 672 896 1685 1108 4878 47.3% Bush 529 630 858 1650 1084 4751 46.1% Total 901 1128 1542 2817 1906 8294 97.1% Kerry 441 576 771 1394 924 4106 48.1% Bush 460 552 771 1423 982 4188 49.0% RV LV "RV minus LV" Voters CBS Fox Gallup ABC Pew Total Total 145 174 213 519 286 1335 Kerry 76 96 125 291 184 772 Bush 69 78 88 227 102 563 Kerry 52.6% 55.2% 58.8% 56.2% 64.3% 57.8% Bush 47.4% 44.8% 41.2% 43.8% 35.7% 42.2% Spread 5.2% 10.3% 17.6% 12.4% 28.7% 15.6% If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible. Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible. Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count. Polled Pre Vote: 10,310. 'RV-LV' sample: CBS + Gallup + ABC + FOX + Pew Post-Election 12:22a Prelim NEP 57% 41% Polled Exit Vote: 13,046. Shares = 3.4m Dem margin (17% DNV == 21.4m) Post-Election 1:25p Final NEP 54% 45% CATEGORY Average Total Votes Max Min Gender Party-ID Vote Prev Electn Region Education Race Age Income Ideology Religion Military Decided Location Kerry 50.85% 62.19 51.63% 50.08% 50.78% 51.07% 51.20% 50.53% 50.43% 50.98% 50.26% 51.07% 50.18% 50.78% 51.20% 51.23% 51.40% Bush 47.88% 58.55 48.51% 47.24% 48.22% 47.85% 47.50% 47.95% 48.18% 47.61% 47.69% 47.75% 48.60% 48.01% 47.62% 47.93% 47.47% Other 1.27% 1.55 1.85% 0.69% 1.00% 1.08% 1.30% 1.52% 1.39% 1.41% 2.05% 1.18% 1.22% 1.21% 1.18% 0.84% 1.13% Kerry 47.95% 58.64 48.62% 47.29% 47.78% 47.89% 48.48% 48.24% 47.82% 47.81% 47.96% 48.13% 47.25% 47.99% 48.38% 47.50% 48.14% Bush 51.08% 62.47 51.62% 50.54% 51.22% 51.22% 51.11% 51.08% 51.24% 50.99% 51.28% 51.02% 51.54% 50.94% 50.44% 51.22% 50.73% Other 0.97% 1.19 1.46% 0.48% 1.00% 0.89% 0.41% 0.68% 0.94% 1.20% 0.76% 0.85% 1.21% 1.07% 1.18% 1.28% 1.13% Obama 52.69% 69.22 53.13% 52.25% 52.71% 52.67% 52.62% 52.76% 52.31% 52.82% 52.29% 52.96% 52.56% 53.07% 52.65% 52.67% 52.88% McCain 45.57% 59.86 46.14% 44.99% 45.35% 45.14% 45.94% 45.56% 45.93% 45.57% 45.71% 44.99% 45.88% 45.58% 45.50% 45.81% 45.41% Other 1.74% 2.29 2.24% 1.25% 1.94% 2.19% 1.44% 1.68% 1.76% 1.61% 2.00% 2.05% 1.56% 1.35% 1.85% 1.52% 1.71% 2004 PRELIMINARY NEP 1% Margin of Error 2004 FINAL EXIT POLL 'forced' to match the count 2008 FINAL EXIT POLL 'forced' to match the count Vote Prev Electn 12:22am ( 13,047 ) 1:25pm ( 13,660 ) ( 17,836 ) Voted '00 DNV Gore Bush Other Share Votes '04 20.79 47.70 50.14 3.67 Weight 17% 39% 41% 3% 100% Kerry 57% 91% 10% 64% 51.20% Bush 41% 8% 90% 17% 47.50% Other 2% 1% 0% 19% 1.30% Weight 17% 37% 43% 3% 100% Kerry 54% 90% 9% 71% 48.48% Bush 45% 10% 91% 21% 51.11% Other 1% 0% 0% 8% 0.41% Voted '04 DNV Kerry Bush Other Weight 13% 37% 46% 4% 100% Obama 71% 89% 17% 66% 52.62% McCain 27% 10% 82% 24% 45.94% Other 2% 1% 1% 10% 1.44% Voted 2000 Alive Calculated 2004 True Vote '00 DNV Gore Bush Other Total Cast 55.04 51.64 4.11 110.8 Deaths 2.69 2.52 0.2 5.41 '04 52.36 49.12 3.91 105.39 Turnout 97% 97% 97% 100.1 Voted 23.48 50.80 47.66 3.80 125.74 Cast 2004 Official Vote Count Weight 18.70% 40.40% 37.90% 3.02% 100% 125.74 122.3 Kerry 57% 91% 10% 64% 53.14% 66.81 59.03 48.27% Bush 41% 8% 90% 17% 45.51% 57.23 62.04 50.73% Other 2% 1% 0% 19% 1.35% 1.70 1.23 1.00% Voted Unadjusted Alive Calculated 2008 True Vote '04 DNV Kerry Bush Other Total Uncounted 1.79 1.62 0.03 3.45 Cast 65.38 59.09 1.26 125.74 Deaths 3.14 2.84 0.06 6.04 '08 62.25 56.26 1.2 119.7 Turnout 97% 97% 97% 113.7 Voted 19.32 60.38 54.57 1.17 135.43 Cast 2008 Official Vote Count Weight 14.30% 44.60% 40.30% 0.86% 100% 135.43 131.37 Obama 71% 89% 17% 66% 57.22% 77.50 69.46 52.87% McCain 27% 9% 82% 24% 41.11% 55.68 59.94 45.62% Other 2% 2% 1% 10% 1.67% 2.26 1.98 1.51% 1988-2008 SUMMARY '88-'08 Calculated True Vote Dem Rep Margin Recorded Vote-Count Dem Rep Margin Unadj State Exit Poll Aggreg Dem Rep Margin Margins Diff TrueVote-EP True Vote Margin (mil) Avg-'08 Avg-'04 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 51.82% 50.69% 57.5% 53.2% 49.4% 51.9% 48.0% 50.7% 42.54% 42.88% 40.8% 45.4% 46.0% 39.3% 35.0% 48.1% 9.29% 7.87% 16.7% 7.8% 3.3% 12.6% 13.0% 2.6% 47.90% 46.91% 52.9% 48.3% 48.4% 49.2% 43.0% 45.6% 45.96% 46.03% 45.6% 50.7% 47.9% 40.7% 37.4% 53.4% 1.94% 0.88% 7.2% -2.5% 0.5% 8.5% 5.6% -7.7% 48.82% na 52.0% 49.4% 50.2% 45.7% 46.8% 44.12% na 47.0% 46.9% 39.8% 34.7% 52.2% 4.70% 4.9% 2.5% 10.4% 11.0% -5.3% -3.82% -7.4% -2.0% -1.9% -5.4% -2.4% 3.17% 2.9% 0.8% 2.2% 2.0% 8.0% 11.11 (D) 8.81 (D) 22.60 (D) 9.79 (D) 4.24 (D) 10.50 (D) 14.82 (D) 2.67 (D) TRUE VOTE CALCULATION Election Calculator 1988 2008 True Vote Calculations: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 incl Sensitivity Analyses: Turnout, Mortality, Uncounted Introduction Summary Statistics, 1988 - 2008 OH, CT, NY, PA, CA, NJ, FL Graphs 2004 Pre-election polls, Exit polls and the True Vote States 2008 2008 Final National Exit Poll - 35 categoories 2004 Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates: WPE, Best Geo, Composite 2004 The Final 5.6 Million Recorded Votes Historical Final National Exit Poll Demographic Trend and Correlation Analysis 1988-2004 Recorded State Vote and Exit Poll Shares U.S. Census: Reported Voting in Presidential Election Years by Region, Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age 1964 - 2004 Links: Polling Analysis, Census Data, 2000/2004 County Vote Database, National Exit Poll Timeline, Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Report, State Exit Polls (GEO Best Estimate), Election Incident Reporting Systsem (EIRS) REGRESSION ANALYSIS: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout Two-party y=.15+.41x Kerry 47.8% 48.2% 48.6% 48.9% 49.0% 49.4% 49.9% 50.3% 50.7% 51.1% 51.3% 51.5% 51.9% Turnout 80% 81% 82% 82.8% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 88.5% 89% 90% 75% UVA y=.012+.581x Kerry 47.7% 48.3% 48.8% 49.3% 49.4% 50.0% 50.6% 51.2% 51.7% 52.3% 52.6% 52.9% 53.5% Turnout 80% 81% 82% 82.8% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 88.5% 89% 90% 2000 Final Pre-election Polls Actual Poll (%) 0.60 0.40 Undecided Voters Allocated RV 11/2 11/5 11/5 LV 11/2 11/5 11/5 Poll Newsweek Pew Gallup Total Poll Newsweek Pew Gallup Total Gore 44 45 46 45 Gore 43 43 45 43.67 Bush 41 41 44 42 Bush 45 45 47 45.67 Spread 3 4 2 3 Spread -2 -2 -2 -2 Gore 52.4 52.8 51.4 52.2 Gore 49.6 49.6 49.2 49.47 Bush 46.6 46.2 47.6 46.8 Bush 49.4 49.4 49.8 49.53 Spread 5.8 6.6 3.8 5.4 Spread 0.2 0.2 -0.6 -0.07 2000-2008 Final Pre-election Poll Summary RV Polls LV Polls 2000 2004 2008 Dem 45.00 47.20 52.33 Rep 42.00 46.00 40.00 Spread 3.00 1.80 12.33 Dem 43.67 47.20 52.00 Rep 45.67 47.00 43.00 Spread -2.00 0.20 9.00 UVA Projected 2000 2004 2008 52.20 51.55 56.96 46.80 47.45 41.54 5.40 4.10 15.42 49.47 49.65 54.63 49.53 49.35 43.88 -0.07 0.30 10.75 Recorded 2000 2004 2008 48.87 48.27 52.87 48.38 50.73 45.62 0.49 -2.46 7.25 48.87 48.27 52.87 48.38 50.73 45.62 0.49 -2.46 7.25 Diff: Proj-Recd 2000 2004 2008 3.33 3.28 4.09 -1.58 -3.28 -4.08 4.91 6.56 8.17 0.60 1.38 1.76 1.15 -1.38 -1.75 -0.56 2.76 3.50 2006 National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend) VOTED 7:07p Preliminary Exit Poll 1pm Final Exit Poll True Generic Vote '04 Kerry Bush Other DNV TOTAL Mix 45% 47% 4% 4% 100% Dem 93% 17% 67% 67% 55.2% Rep 6% 82% 23% 30% 43.4% Other 1% 1% 10% 3% 1.4% Mix 43% 49% 4% 4% 100% Dem 92% 15% 66% 66% 52.2% Rep 7% 83% 23% 32% 45.9% Other 1% 2% 11% 2% 1.9% Mix 49% 46% 1% 4% 100% Dem 93% 17% 67% 67% 56.7% Rep 6% 82% 23% 30% 42.1% Other 1% 1% 10% 3% 1.2% 2006 Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll National Exit Poll Source Unadj NEP CNN-7pm CNN-Final NYT Dem 56.37% 55.20% 52.20% 53.10% Rep 41.33% 43.40% 45.90% 44.90% Other 2.30% 1.50% 2.50% 2.00% Reported National Vote Wikipedia CBS-Nat CBS-State 57.70% 52.70% 51.30% 41.80% 45.10% 46.40% 0.50% 2.20% 2.30% 120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend Dem = Rep = 46.98 + .0419x 38.06 + .0047x Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats: Dem = Rep = Trend + UVA = Projection 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43% 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57% Graphics 2008 Election Model: Obama Electoral Vote and Popular Vote Share Trend 2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Margin Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters 2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Share Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters 2006 Pre-election Generic Poll Trend Probabilities of Democratic House Gain 2004 Pre-Election and Exit Poll Vote Share Simulation |
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